January opened on a largely positive note for European IT distribution, building on a strong finish to 2025 and early momentum in several key markets. Progress was not uniform, but the overall picture points to resilient business demand, a steady recovery in software and infrastructure, and increasing divergence between countries as regulatory and macroeconomic factors begin to play a bigger role.

France and Spain set the early pace, both starting 2026 above 2025 levels. The UK also entered the year positively, while Germany remained stable rather than accelerating. Italy stood apart from the broader trend, with distribution activity continuing to trail its European peers despite a calmer economic backdrop. Across Panel Europe, most markets remained above index, reinforcing the sense of a constructive, if uneven, start to the year.

Software and infrastructure drive early momentum

Software and licences were the strongest contributors to value growth, extending a pattern that took hold in the second half of 2025. Disk storage, data centre networking and security also performed well, reflecting sustained enterprise investment and growing regulatory pressure. Peripherals and more consumer-led categories opened the year more cautiously, underlining the continuing gap between business and consumer demand.

Business channels set the pace

Corporate resellers and business-focused e-tailers were the clear drivers of January’s performance. These channels entered 2026 with stronger momentum than retail and consumer routes to market, highlighting where spending confidence currently sits. Consumer channels, while closing 2025 on a high, showed greater volatility, pointing to a slower and less consistent recovery.

Country focus: Germany and France diverge

In Germany, economic pressure persisted despite stabilising GDP and easing inflation. The introduction of NIS2 in December has expanded cybersecurity obligations to around 30,000 companies, with early indications that this will translate into increased security investment during 2026. In France, a strong close to Q4 2025 lifted full-year results into positive territory. Business and household confidence held up despite political uncertainty, supporting continued distribution activity into January.

Cybersecurity ends 2025 positively, but with mixed signals

European cybersecurity closed 2025 up 5.2 per cent year on year, despite a softer fourth quarter. Growth was led by network security and data security, while endpoint protection underperformed. Ongoing regulatory developments, including NIS2 enforcement and proposed EU supply chain measures, are likely to shape spending priorities as 2026 unfolds.

Looking ahead

The opening weeks of 2026 suggest a market that is stable rather than accelerating. Business demand, software-led value growth and regulation-driven investment remain the most reliable supports, while differences between national markets are becoming more pronounced. How organisations balance confidence, compliance and cost control will play a key role in determining how evenly this recovery is felt across Europe.

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