RAM prices across primary European
markets reached index levels between 155 and 220 in December 2025,
representing a significant escalation in hardware costs. This sharp
increase, documented in the latest CONTEXT data, signals a
structural shift in the IT supply chain as manufacturers prioritise
Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure over consumer-grade technology.
The AI Pivot: Structural Shifts in Manufacturing
The current market volatility stems
from a strategic reallocation of production capacity. Manufacturers
are diverting resources from standard consumer memory and storage to
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to meet the demand of global data centres.
This "AI Pivot" has created a structural shortage that
analysts expect to persist through 2027.
The scale of this shift is evidenced
by recent industrial performance; for instance, SanDisk reported a 61
per cent revenue surge driven by AI-related storage requirements.
Because the lead time for new semiconductor fabrication plants is
approximately two years, the industry cannot immediately expand
capacity to address this imbalance. Consequently, inventory for
certain component categories is expected to remain constrained for the
foreseeable future.
Component Pricing: Rapid Departure from 2025 Baselines
Using a price index baseline of 100
(representing average costs during July, August, and September 2025),
current data reveals a steep upward trajectory for essential parts.
- RAM (Memory): By December 2025, costs hit
index levels of 155 to 220. In specific regions, the cost of
memory has more than doubled in a three-month period.
- SSDs (Storage): Consumer solid-state drives
reached index levels between 125 and 135, a 25 per cent to 35
per cent increase over the summer 2025 baseline.
Finished Goods: Tracking the Transfer of Costs
The transition of these component
costs to finished retail units currently shows a divergent pattern
between desktop and portable form factors.
Desktop prices have already risen,
reflecting the immediate integration of higher-priced components into
the assembly line. Conversely, notebook prices have softened
temporarily. This suggests that current notebook demand is being
satisfied by legacy inventory purchased before the late-2025 component
price spike.
Outlook for Q2 2026: The Depletion of Legacy Stock
The price stability currently
observed in the notebook sector is unlikely to continue beyond the
first quarter of 2026. As 2025 inventory levels are exhausted,
retailers will be forced to stock units manufactured under the
current high-cost regime.
By the second quarter of 2026, the
market anticipates a scarcity of specific configurations. This
scarcity may be compounded by emerging difficulties in CPU supply.
Retailers should prepare for a shift toward higher price points, which
may place downward pressure on consumer demand.
"The first quarter of 2026
offers a vital window for retailers to secure inventory before the
AI-driven component crunch triggers unavoidable price hikes,"
notes James Bates, Senior Analyst at CONTEXT. "Success in this
volatile period requires robust procurement modelling and a
commitment to educating consumers on the necessity of upgrading
before legacy stock is depleted."
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informed on these shifting market dynamics and access the
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