A region–wide macro–economic recovery, public sector funding and some
big–name sporting events next year should help propel desktop monitor
and large format display (LFD) sales growth through European distribution.
The latest CONTEXT data predicts small levels of unit growth in
desktop monitors, although prices will remain low. We expect LFD unit
and revenue sales to bounce back in 2024 thanks to strong performance
in signage, interactive and DV-LED LFDs.
For the full year 2024, CONTEXT predicts year–on–year (YoY)
desktop monitor unit sales growth at between -2.1% and 1.7%. That’s
much improved from 2023’s range of –16.3% to –15.1%. Revenue is set
to fall between –6.2% and 2.6% –again, up significantly from our
prediction of –23.2% to –21.5% this year. Demand has been weak in
the desktop monitor segment since the macroeconomic slump began in
the second half of 2022. This drove heavy price competition and
increased preference for entry–level monitors, dragging revenue
down. Although the business market contributes the biggest share,
consumer sales have been performing better of late thanks to
increased demand for gaming and docking monitors.
In the coming year, we’ll see more public funds coming through as
the DigitalPakt Schule fund nears the end of its lifespan in May, and
also from NextGen EU, which will help to spur business investment. The
hope is that interest rates have already peaked, which should increase
business confidence, although the market may have to wait until the
second half of the year before a return to growth. PC refreshes could
spur more desktop monitor demand later in 2024, although prices are
not expected to increase much until OLED monitors increase in popularity.
A drop in public investment in 2023 led to many large projects
being cancelled permanently or temporarily until the economy improves.
That led to a –11% YoY decrease in units sold year–to–date (YTD).
Saturation in the interactive category has increased price competition
and driven down prices. However, this more competitive market, allied
with the improved availability of entry–level interactive boards, has
helped to propel education and business adoption. Improvements in the
production of DV-LED have pushed down ASPs, leading to improved unit sales.
For 2024, increased investment in interactive LFDs in German
schools will be helped by the DigitalPakt Schule fund, while NextGen
EU will drive business investment. The latter should also ramp up as
the overall economy improves and the outcome of several general
elections becomes clear. The overall LFD market will also benefit from
refreshes ahead of major sporting events in Europe: the Olympics in
Paris and the UEFA football championships in Germany. Recovery is
expected from Q2 onwards.
The Live CONTEXT Forecast sessions are taking
place next week, so get in touch with the team if you
would like to know more or get involved:
© CONTEXT 2024