Research Updates

London, 28 June 2022 – PC revenue sales through European distributors have trended down in Q2 2022 to date due to the strength of the market last year, rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest data shows revenue down −13% year-on-year in April and May for notebooks and −5% for desktops.

Falling demand

The decline in revenue across the region is the result of several factors. One is the strong baseline for sales in the same period a year ago. Over 2020 and 2021 the market was supply driven but it is now shifting to a place where demand is a more important factor. That’s not to say there are no challenges on the supply side. Logistics costs are being exacerbated by Covid lockdowns in Asia and the war in Ukraine. The feedback from our partners is that while there is still sometimes a shortage of supply for specific business product ranges, overall availability has greatly  improved - in some markets to an extent where we now have an excess of product supply.

Demand has fallen in both consumer and business segments, although the drop in the latter has been softer over recent weeks. Hybrid working is still the number one driver of business sales but it is less urgent and focused only on certain products. Meanwhile, rising energy prices and living costs are impacting consumer confidence and this market is also suffering from a certain amount of saturation. 

Country by country

Most major European countries have recorded decreases in revenue, although the extent of the decline varies. Germany is among the countries that have seen  a weak performance, and we’re hearing that OEMs there are trying to combat falling demand with aggressive pricing. In fact, Germany is the only top Western European country where the average selling price of PCs has dropped between Q1 and Q2 2022. Elsewhere, in countries like Spain, retail and SMB revenues are shrinking while corporate sales are holding up. In the UK, the decrease in revenues is less acute than in other countries due to strong commercial performance, although the consumer market here has also seen signs of softening demand. 

However, there are positives. We’re still optimistic about the PC market in the mid to long term. There’s a larger base of installed machines that will need renewal and those in some sectors, such as education, may need faster upgrades. Hybrid working in the business sector continues to drive demand for some products, and Windows 11 migration and new processor launches are also likely to have a positive impact.

London, 1 June 2022 – Unit sales of mobile computing devices through distributors could return to growth by the second half of the year if supply issues ease and cost-of-living challenges have a reduced impact, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

The figures come from CONTEXT’s new forecasting report which reveals that mobile demand is continuing to drive the PC market and should remain high, especially among businesses. However, organisations are being more discerning about purchases and economic and geopolitical uncertainty may hit consumer sales.

Availability and demand
Supply and demand remains a key issue. There are more products available than last year; European distributors are holding 7–9 weeks of stock but it’s not always the right stock. Some products that have been in transit for many months are outdated by the time they arrive. Russia’s war in Ukraine and additional Covid lockdowns in Asia have also added to supply chain headaches and costs.

However, there are some positives. Windows 11 migration will drive more PC sales in the second half of the year, as may an increased appetite for more sustainable and secure products.

Two scenarios
With these factors in mind, CONTEXT has developed two forecasts for the next year.

The first is based on a pessimistic scenario where supply improves but the disconnect between product availability and demand continues, desktop demand remains soft, and economic factors (such as inflation) hit consumer and commercial demand – especially the former. In this case, we could see mobile computing growth of −21.7% in Q2 2022 rise to −1% in Q3 and return to low positive values in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. For desktop computers, growth would drop from −5.6% in Q2 2022 to −6.9% in Q3 before rising again – albeit not to positive levels.

The second, optimistic, scenario imagines improvements in supply and desktop demand, price drops, Q2 excess stock selling out, and economic factors having a smaller impact. In this situation, the growth in mobile computing unit sales could go from −7.1% in Q2 to 10.9% in Q3 2022 before stabilising in Q4 and tailing off in Q1 2023. Desktop growth would hover at −2.3% in Q2 2022 and stay at a similar level (−2.7%) in Q3 2022 before becoming positive in the following two quarters.

London, 28 June 2022 – Anticipation of a bumper summer of events could drive growth in revenues from sales of large-format displays (LFDs) as high as 35% year-on-year in Q2, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest IT channel briefing report discusses factors that have affected sales of monitors and LFDs through European distributors, including the aftershocks of the pandemic that will continue to have an impact for the rest of the year.

Growth in the consumer market is negative for the first time in 24 months as gamers and other would-be buyers spend their money on other things, leading to a supply glut. In the coming months, rising inflation may also begin to reduce consumer demand. As offices reopen, it is the commercial market which is driving overall sales – although supply chain issues, component availability and expensive logistics costs are still pushing up prices and delaying lead times.

There is little innovation in the consumer market: higher resolutions, bigger screens and higher refresh rates account for most of the changes in new models. On the business side, manufacturers are looking at products such as USB-C docking monitors to support the new trend for hybrid working.

The numbers for Q2

The good news is that revenue from displays and LFDs is likely to grow by double digits in Q2 even with unit sales stumbling. A pessimistic forecast – based on a scenario where component shortages persist into the second half of the year, consumer demand declines significantly, lead times increase and ASPs drop as demand for gaming monitors sinks – would see unit sales of monitors decline by 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2022 but revenue increase 14.3% over the same period. For LFDs there’s a brighter forecast: unit sales growing by 22.4% and revenue sales surging by 24.8%.

CONTEXT’s optimistic scenario assumes an increase in the availability of business products, recovering consumer demand and the product mix shifting towards more expensive models. That would see unit sales of displays grow by 1.2% year-on-year in Q2 and revenues by 22.7%. For LFDs, the positive scenario also means a tilt towards more expensive products as the impact of the pandemic reduces and the prospect of summer events encourages more investment. Should that happen, CONTEXT predicts unit sales increasing 33% and revenue growth hitting 34.9%.

London, 28 June 2022 – Anticipation of a bumper summer of events could drive growth in revenues from sales of large-format displays (LFDs) as high as 35% year-on-year in Q2, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest IT channel briefing report discusses factors that have affected sales of monitors and LFDs through European distributors, including the aftershocks of the pandemic that will continue to have an impact for the rest of the year.

Growth in the consumer market is negative for the first time in 24 months as gamers and other would-be buyers spend their money on other things, leading to a supply glut. In the coming months, rising inflation may also begin to reduce consumer demand. As offices reopen, it is the commercial market which is driving overall sales – although supply chain issues, component availability and expensive logistics costs are still pushing up prices and delaying lead times.

There is little innovation in the consumer market: higher resolutions, bigger screens and higher refresh rates account for most of the changes in new models. On the business side, manufacturers are looking at products such as USB-C docking monitors to support the new trend for hybrid working.

The numbers for Q2

The good news is that revenue from displays and LFDs is likely to grow by double digits in Q2 even with unit sales stumbling. A pessimistic forecast – based on a scenario where component shortages persist into the second half of the year, consumer demand declines significantly, lead times increase and ASPs drop as demand for gaming monitors sinks – would see unit sales of monitors decline by 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2022 but revenue increase 14.3% over the same period. For LFDs there’s a brighter forecast: unit sales growing by 22.4% and revenue sales surging by 24.8%.

CONTEXT’s optimistic scenario assumes an increase in the availability of business products, recovering consumer demand and the product mix shifting towards more expensive models. That would see unit sales of displays grow by 1.2% year-on-year in Q2 and revenues by 22.7%. For LFDs, the positive scenario also means a tilt towards more expensive products as the impact of the pandemic reduces and the prospect of summer events encourages more investment. Should that happen, CONTEXT predicts unit sales increasing 33% and revenue growth hitting 34.9%.

London, 29 June 2022 – Revenues from sales of inkjet single-function printers (SFPs) through European distributors have been largely on the rise since Week 15 of this year on the back of improved supply and consumer demand, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s Index Revenue Trend clearly shows weekly average revenues from inkjet SFPs that are way above those of the year before. In Week 22, the figure stood at around 15% above the 2021 baseline. We believe the turning point in Week 15 was a consequence of product availability: supply bottlenecks were easing and more inkjet SFPs were sold in response to both a backlog of orders and increased demand, especially for consumer ink-tank SFPs.

Because of this, consumer print revenue first grew closer to business print revenue and, in Week 22, surpassed it for the first time in a long time. While new sales of consumer printers, driven again by ink tanks, and partial fulfilment of earlier orders have been key, price increases have also played a significant role in generating revenue over recent weeks.

A4 printers are now performing significantly better than A3 devices and, once again, this is fuelled by consumer sales – inkjet and ink-tank models in particular. 

Variations by channel and country

The resurgence of consumer revenue is reflected in the recent performance of retail chains. This sales channel has been trending above the index 100 line since Week 17; there was a sharp decline in Week 21 but it was followed by a swift recovery the following week.

Retailers in France and Germany have seen high sales of consumer printers since Week 6. As a result, in France, revenue for the retail channel is higher than both last year and 2020, as well as being above the index 100. In Germany, there’s a similar situation, although the current revenue index remains below the 2020 level.

London, 14 April 2022 – Volume and value sales of printers through European distribution fell by double digits year-on-year (YoY) in the first three months of 2022, although business revenues have remained largely above the 2021 average so far this year, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest data reveals a -29% YoY slump in unit sales for print hardware in Q1 2022 and a -10% drop in revenue. Our predicted worst-case scenario for the quarter was for a decline of -26% and -14% respectively.

This drop was driven in part by lower demand versus a year ago, especially in the consumer market which is reaching saturation, particularly for entry-level printers. Other factors include components and raw materials shortages which are increasing lead times. Why did revenue decline at a slower rate than volume sales? Because of a different product mix versus a year ago, and more sales of mid- and high-end devices, especially business printers. Price increases in the consumer market, driven by continued product shortages, also drove up the average selling price (ASP) of products. This was particularly noticeable for laser devices, which benefited from more sales of A3 business printers, especially laser SFPs.

Business sales rebound

Despite the overall decline, business revenue sales have been trending above the index 100 baseline since Week 3 of 2022, indicating improved performance versus the 2021 average. In recent weeks, the gap has widened between these and consumer sales figures, which still sit well below the baseline.

A changing product mix, with more high-end devices sold and price increases for entry-level and mid-range devices, resulted in a higher ASP and overall strong revenue performance for the business sector. The reopening of offices and IT budgets rebalanced towards office equipment are also playing their part in driving up revenue.

This meant business revenues declined by just -2% YoY in Q1, versus -22% in the consumer segment. Unit sales fared worse, with business volumes slumping -13% YoY and consumer sales dropping -36% over the same period.

Country-by-country

Most of the top European countries saw revenue trend downwards in Q1, either below the 2021 or 2020 trend lines, with the exception of Poland and Italy.

Poland has seen a sharp increase since Week 12 and is now sitting above the 2021 baseline. Italy is just below last year’s curve and trending up as well. It’s benefitting from publicly funded projects, and we expect this will continue, since new public tender offers have been issued for 100,000 A4 printers (worth around €55m), which should be closed in the next couple of months.

ANP: refillable ink bottles trend upwards

Finally, let’s look at data for the average number of pages printed (ANP). This is calculated from two factors: the yield of pages printed per cartridges/tank and toners, and the units sold for these consumable products. The end result provides a measure of potential pages printed.

There was a slight YoY decrease of -0.2% in printed pages in Q1 2022, with toners, ink cartridges, and tanks very close to last year's figures. Breaking down the ANP index by consumable type, it’s clear that ink cartridges and toners are following a similar pattern. Since March, toners have been above the index baseline.

The ANP performance of refillable ink bottles has steadily trended upwards since August last year, except for a slowdown in November and December. The index reached a peak of 162 in March 2022. In fact, ink tanks are still performing exceptionally well, steadily gaining market share over inkjet cartridge printers. As a result, refillable ink bottles have also seen a consistently positive performance thus far and this is expected to continue in 2022.

London, 13 June 2022 – Revenue from sales of storage hardware through European distributors could benefit from new market trends to reach year-on-year growth of 3.2% in Q2 2022, according to the latest figures from CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest market predictions for enterprise storage and servers take into account the optimism of vendors who have largely been addressing component availability challenges and are upbeat about the coming year. Distributors and resellers are also keen to draw attention to the potential impact of digitization projects that are now on the horizon and the transition to faster, more powerful chips.

That said, availability of offerings with improved memory configuration is still an issue, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may also take its toll.

Two scenarios

As always, CONTEXT has considered two possible scenarios for growth in Q2 and beyond.

In the worst-case outlook, product availability issues continue, as a result of lockdowns in China, while supply constraints remain; the war in Ukraine creates further uncertainty and cloud adoption does not translate into major sales for the sector. This scenario would lead to year-on-year decreases in sales of servers (predicted to fall by 1.1%) and storage (2.2%) in Q2 2022.

However, a more optimistic picture sees an improvement in storage array sales (thanks to newer technology and improved availability) as well as the impacts of product upgrades, refreshes and continued hybrid working overcoming that of lingering component availability issues. These conditions are likely to result in year-on-year revenue growth of 1.4% for enterprise servers and 3.2% for the storage in Q2 2022.

London, 9 June 2022 – Revenues from sales of enterprise networking kit through distributors have been growing consistently for four quarters, and Q2 2022 is likely to see double-digit gains in the wireless segment, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

CONTEXT’s latest channel briefing report references the strong performance of enterprise networking over the past 12 months. Much of this can be explained by recent innovations, hybrid-working fuelled demand for bandwidth and wireless connectivity, and 5G and Wi-Fi 6 rollouts alongside existing trends such as the adoption of AI, IoT and SD-WAN technologies.

In Q1 2022, networking revenue surged 11.6%, driven by wireless (up 28.4%). However, wireless is a much smaller portion of the market than switching, which saw more muted growth of 7.8%. Both segments have experienced price increases as a result of component availability issues and increasing logistics costs.

Wireless set to shine

In both their pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, CONTEXT expects wireless to hit double digit growth.

In the former scenario, with supply constraints and China lockdowns having a negative impact, wireless is set grow 10% year-on-year in Q2 2022, driven by people working from home.

The optimistic scenario anticipates an easing of supply chain issues, continued wireless growth and possible advance buying as most Western European markets increase spending on new technology. CONTEXT expect these factors will lead to year-on-year revenues increases in Q2 2022 of 14.2% for wireless, 4.8% for switching and 7.9% for networking overall.

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