Research Updates

London, 06 February 2020 – 16% of PCs sold through Western Europe’s largest distributors in December 2019 were based on AMD-branded processors, compared to 7% in the same month of the previous year, according to the latest distribution data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

                PC processor vendor mix (consumer & commercial) : WE distribution

The share grew most in the consumer segment: while only 10% of PCs sold to retailers and consumer etailers in December 2018 were powered by AMD chips, the proportion rose to 24% at the end of last year as the rise in AMD PC volumes was coupled with a decline in sales of products based on Intel processors.

                              PC processor vendor mix: consumer channels, WE

AMD also gained share in commercial sales, but on a smaller scale and from a lower base. In December 2018, the vendor’s processors featured in 4% of PCs selling to small and medium resellers, corporate resellers and business etailers whereas, by the end of the following year, AMD’s share of the commercial segment had risen to 10%.

A number of PC vendors increased their focus on AMD offerings during 2019 as a consequence of Intel’s chip supply constraints. While AMD PC sales in commercial distribution continued to be dominated by HP and Lenovo, for consumer sales the vendor landscape remained more varied with HP, Lenovo, Acer and Asus all offering a variety of products and driving growth.

                                PC processor vendor mix: commercial channels, WE

Total sales of AMD models in December 2019 varied strongly by country. Across the five largest Western European markets, adoption was strongest in Germany (where AMD’s market share was 20%), followed by the UK (17%), Italy (16%), Spain (15%) and France (11%).

Throughout last year, Intel’s supply constraints presented PC makers with significant challenges, and AMD was able to increase its footprint as a result. Although Intel supply is expected to improve over the coming quarters, the shortage continues to impact the market and there are still gaps into which AMD can move to bring up its share, particularly of the consumer market.

London, 15 November 2019 – Combined sales of notebook and desktop workstations through Western Europe’s largest distributors continued to rise in early Q4 2019 following healthy consolidated growth during the first three quarters of the year, according to the latest distribution data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company. Volume sales were up by +3% year-on-year in October having increased by +7% over Q1 to Q3 2019.

The latest rise was due to growing sales of both mobile and stationary systems: mobile workstation sales increased by +2% year-on-year while those of desktops were up by +4%. This growth was mostly confined to the top three vendors in the distribution channel: HP, Lenovo and Dell.

Workstation demand in 2019 has so far been driven by a number of factors. Among these are Windows 10 migration, new product launches, and the rising need for high-performance systems – not only in traditional fields, such as engineering and design, but also for new applications including AI and virtual reality.

Although workstations remain a small segment within personal systems in terms of volumes, they represent important revenue and margin drivers: while accounting for only 2% of PC systems sold through Western Europe’s largest distributors in October, they generated 5% of PC revenues. During this time, distributor average sell prices were €1,472 for mobile and €1,127 for stationary workstations (excl. BTO).

                                   Workstation volume sales: WE distribution

                     Distributor average sell price (ASP) in €, excl. BTO: WE

London, 05 February 2020 – The steady change in retail, workspace and classroom environments that is driven by the need to improve customer service or/and collaboration efficiency has resulted in another positive quarter for sales of large format displays (LFDs) through distributors in Western Europe (WE). The latest results from an impressive 2019 show fourth-quarter growth of +13% year-on-year for the category, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

                            Large format display sales: WE distribution

The period was particularly strong for displays that enable interactivity and collaboration: sales of these were up by over 30% in Q4 2019. Although prices continue to decline, as a result of increasing competition between vendors trying to meet customer needs, LFDs continue to offer vendors, distributors and resellers greater value than displays sold in higher volumes. The ongoing introduction of new technologies and solutions (which lead in turn to yet more new applications) has helped revenues climb higher and higher – by almost +40% year-on-year in Q4 2019. Most countries in WE registered double-digit growth for these interactive solutions during 2019, and increasing demand in Spain led to a doubling of sales. Even so, the UK remains the biggest market for LFDs.

The dominant screen size is still 55" and this is used not only for standalone signage but also for videowalls. However, there is interest in smaller sizes, too: in Q4 2019, sales of 49" videowall panels grew by over +130% year-on-year and their average selling price (ASP) fell to about €1400 – almost 40% less than the ASP of 55" panels sold by WE distributors. As the cost of interactive displays with new technologies drops, there is a growing market for even larger screens, and sales of 84"+ displays grew by over +45% in the last quarter of 2019.

Another growth area in WE distribution is premium displays with a high level of brightness (500 nit and above) that enable uninterrupted 24/7 content delivery. In Q4 2019 these accounted for 25% of standalone signage revenues and their sales grew by +28% year-on-year with those of the highest brightness (1000 nit and above) performing particularly well. The leaders in this field are Samsung and Sony followed by LG, NEC and DynaScan. Although Sony saw a drop in sales, all the others registered double-digit growth over the quarter.

                               Large format display ASPs: WE distribution

LFDs have been around for some time now but, as sales are expected to continue growing, they remain a hot product for marketers and vendors. This is a result of the continuous evolution of digital signs and their applications in response to new technologies that seem to appear almost every day: screens are no longer just filling up otherwise blank walls but becoming integral parts of a space. Moreover, rapidly developing signage-as-a-service offers will enable businesses to upgrade quickly by investing in digital signage without having to take full and ongoing responsibility for display maintenance and content management.

London, 3 December 2019 – Sales of desktop monitors through Western Europe distributors grew in early Q4 2019 following the trend begun in the earlier three quarters of the year. Sales were once again driven by higher demand in consumer channels, according to data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

In the first month of the quarter, combined sales of business- and consumer-targeted monitors were up by +7% year-on-year. While Q3 saw increased sales of business models alone, sales in both segments were up in October and, as expected, overall growth was driven mainly by increased sales to consumer etail and retail.

                Desktop monitors: Revenue share by channel, WE distribution

Historically, November – which includes the weeks leading up to Black Friday – has been a very strong month for consumer monitors. Last year, however, sales had already started to pick up in October, and distributors have seen the same thing happen this year: sales to consumer channels (etail and retail) in Germany, UK, Spain and France were +30% higher than in September. In Germany, month-on-month sales grew by over 60% in October. However, sales were lower than in 2018 (falling by -1%) showing that the market is slowing down. It is interesting to note that in October revenues from sales to consumer etail again reached their highest yet market share of over 30% and are now similar to those generated by sales to SMB resellers.

This year has also seen a different trend in terms of pricing. Last year, there was an increase in the number of €200–€250 models distributors sold to consumer channels whereas, this year, sales have been driven by increasing sales of cheaper 23.5", 22" and 21.5" models costing less than €200.

While it is still expected that Q4 volume sales will be strong (with most of the demand being in October and November), the gradual slow down in the monitor market will trigger more aggressive behaviour from vendors – and any increased price competition may affect this year’s desktop monitor revenues.

            Desktop monitors: Average Selling Price (ASP) by channel, WE distribution

       Desktop monitors: Sales to consumer channels by price band, WE distribution

London, 11 September 2019 – The start of Q3 2019 saw printer sales continue to follow the pattern that has characterised the past few quarters, with healthy demand from consumer and business laser multifunction printers (MFPs), according to the latest distribution data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

However, volume sales of printers through West Europe’s largest distributors were down by -4.4% year-on-year in July 2019. The sharp growth of +9.1% in sales of laser MFPs (mainly driven by the exceptional growth of +30% Y/Y in the consumer segment during early Q3), was offset by the sharp decline of inkjet devices (SFPs -15.5% and MFPs -6.4%) and laser SFPs (-6.9%). With distributors reporting that reseller demand for SFPs, particularly lower-spec models, is low, the ongoing shift from single- to multifunction devices is likely to be further consolidated.

Business laser MFPs, which account for 73% of sales and 89% of revenue, registered a small year-on-year volume growth of +2.9% in July 2019, leading to an increase in revenue of +9.3% and reversing the negative trend the market saw in 2018 and 2019.

Sales of, and revenues from, laser MFPs increased in almost all WE countries in July 2019. In Italy, overall printer sales continued to grow in terms of both units and revenues (+14% and +28% year-on-year respectively) with most retailers and small resellers buying from distributors thanks to their ability to offer credit lines and smaller minimum order sizes. Vendors are also benefiting from this shift which transfers financial risk to the distribution channel. However, the question now is how much distributors will ask from vendors to compensate for the higher risk they are taking.

The United Kingdom also registered strong year-on-year growth in sales of laser MFPs in July 2019, in terms of both units (+12%) and revenues (+11%), driven by the business segment (+9.2%) which accounts for 87% of laser MFP sales (96.4% in terms of revenue) in the country. Consumer laser MFPs registered outstanding growth (sales up by +33% and revenue +31%) but they only account for 13% of sales and 3.6% of revenue.

It is expected that both consumer and business demand for laser MFPs will remain strong throughout the second half of 2019 as new products become available. Lexmark, for example, is to roll out a much-needed revamp of its colour laser printers: its GO Line of more compact and faster SFPs and MFPs aimed at small and medium businesses will be available worldwide by mid-September.

While a range of promotional activities during the upcoming back-to-school and Black Friday periods are likely to lead consumer sales for the rest of the year, overall printer demand is expected to remain soft.

Consumer printer volumes and Y/Y change by category – WE distribution

Business printer volumes and Y/Y change by category – WE distribution

London, 17 May 2019 - Printer markets have become increasingly healthy over the recent years and are currently robust, although, as always, they remain competitive. However, sales of printer hardware through distributors in West Europe (WE) were sharply down by -4.2% year-on-year in Q1 2019, according to the latest distribution data published by CONTEXT, the technology market intelligence company. This is not a surprise: the first quarter is, historically, the weakest of the year – and it is usually followed by a weak second quarter.

Sales of multifunction printers (MFPs) were down by -1.7% year-on-year: even though laser MFPs saw a sharp growth of +4.6%, this was offset by the negative performance (-3.4%) of inkjet MFPs which account for almost 78% of sales in WE.

Sales of single-function printers (SFPs) registered a strong decline (-13.6%) and contributed to the overall negative performance in Q1 2019. The ongoing shift from single- to multifunction devices is likely to be further consolidated with distributors reporting that reseller demand for SFPs, particularly lower-spec models, is low.

Laser MFPs saw growth of +4.6% in Q1 2019, driven by the exceptional performance of consumer-targeted devices (sales up by +80%), especially monochrome printers (sales up by +113.1%), which is primarily due to falling ASPs as distributors use promotions and discounts to clear stock and get ready for the arrival of new models.

Consumer printers as a whole steadily increased their market share and drove overall imaging growth in Q1 2019, as they had done in 2018. Sales of business-targeted models, which account for 83% of laser MFP sales and 92.8% of revenue, dropped by -13.4% (leading to a fall in revenue of - 5.5%), mainly because the ASP is continuing to increase. This suggests companies (small and medium businesses) are replacing entry-level business-targeted models with mid- and high-level consumer- targeted devices.

Inkjet MFPs reversed the positive trend seen in 2018 with volume sales declining by -3.4% in Q1 2019. However, revenues were up by +2.3%, helped by increased sales in mid- and high-price ranges and driven by sales of monochrome and A3 devices, which saw revenue growth of +60% and +20.7% on the previous year. It is interesting to note the exceptional growth of A3 printer sales in the consumer segment (+145.4%) – another factor suggesting that SMBs are buying consumer inkjet devices with greater functionality to fulfil their commercial needs.

          Imaging unit sales and Y/Y change by category – WE distribution

Imaging sales and revenues declined in almost all WE countries in Q1 2019. Italy was the only top 5 WE country which continued to register a positive year-on-year performance in terms of both units and revenues. The increase there was driven by strong consumer sales from HP (sales up by +62%), Brother (+38%), Samsung (+15.6%) and Ricoh (+15.5%), which share 69.9% of the country’s printer market.

Spain also saw growth of both units and revenues in Q1 2019, reversing the negative trend of 2018.This positive performance was driven by mid-range and high-range consumer devices, and by brands such as Kyocera (sales up by +149.3%) and Epson (+11%), even though these have a combined market share of only just over 22%.

In the United Kingdom, where consumer confidence is low amidst Brexit-related uncertainty, last year’s positive trend was reversed and sales (units and revenues) declined in Q1 2019. There were falls in both consumer and business segments, and significant drops for brands such as Ricoh (year-on-year sales down by -90.5%), OKI (-36.8%), Epson (-34.3%), Lexmark (-9.9%), Canon (-9.1%), Xerox (-4.9%) and Brother (-3.5%), although other companies, which share 59.4% of the country’s printer market, saw smaller declines.

Germany and France continued to register negative year-on-year changes in volume sales and revenues, with strong falls in both consumer and business segments. This had an effect on all the brands which share over 94% of the printer market in these countries: Ricoh saw volume sales decrease (by -39.8%), as did Samsung (-33%), OKI (-31.4%), Kyocera (-16.7%), Epson (-15.4%), HP (-12.7%), Lexmark (-8%), Brother (-5.8%) and Canon (-3.7%).

     Graph - Y/Y change in imaging units sold through distributors – Top 5 WE countries

Table - Y/Y change in imaging units sold and revenue – WE distribution, Q1 2019

Looking ahead, the market is likely to see other changes alongside the ongoing shift from single-function to multifunction printers.

Managed print services (MPSs) that allow customers to transform their workplaces from paper to digital will continue to expand in 2019 as distributors and retailers use their partnerships with vendors to provide comprehensive, cloud-based MPS solutions to consolidate workplace printing. The emergence of enterprise Internet of Things (IoT) platforms offering asset management, fault detection, smart analytics and remote monitoring presents a broader opportunity for MPS providers to participate.

Over the next one or two years, we expect to see relatively fast growth in sales of production-standard inkjets, wide-format printers (both digital and inkjet), and digital toner-based devices. However, the five-specific print-market segments that are likely grow at a relatively higher rate are packaging and specialty packaging, labels and wrappers, signage, direct mail and point-of-purchase.

London, 22 January 2020 – Despite a slowdown in wireless access point (WAP) sales in Q4 2019, adoption of the Wi-Fi 6 standard is pushing up revenues in the Western Europe (WE) IT distribution channel as its market share increases, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

                                                    WAP revenue: WE

                                                      WAP units: WE

As shown in the two graphs above, WAP revenues in the final quarter of 2019 were almost flat – only -0.9% down on the previous year – while there was a -4.5% year-on-year decline in WAP units sold; this hints at an increase in average selling prices.

                          Q4 2019 WAP unit and revenue growth: Top 5 WE countries

Of the Top 5 WE economies, the UK saw the greatest revenue growth in Q4 2019 with a +9.5% year-on-year increase even while units fell by -10.2%.

                                                    WAP revenues by Wi-Fi type

                                                      WAP units by Wifi type

The main factor driving growth in Q4 was the increasing sales of Wi-Fi 6 access points, which now account for 18% of WAP revenues and 12% units sold, showing that adoption of the latest Wi-Fi standard is gathering pace.

                                  Wi-Fi 6 WAP revenue: country share of market

It is in the UK that the adoption of the new standard is currently most important with the country being responsible for 32% of WE Wi-Fi 6 revenues in Q4 2019; Germany follows, generating 21% of revenues, then the Nordic countries with 18%. As often happens, Northern Europe is at the forefront when it comes to implementing new technology while Spain and Italy lag behind.

As Wi-Fi 6 adoption is a planned change, there is nothing really surprising about these trends; the growth of the new standard will continue throughout 2020, reaching a market share of over 50% towards the second half of the year. The relative slowdown in WAP sales is more interesting. We think this trend will continue – Wi-Fi coverage in WE has definitely reached a tipping point. With those locations where it is still not available being too costly to cover, the future could instead lie in 5G networks: TIM’s latest tests in Italy have demonstrated particularly impressive 5G bandwidths of more than 2Gbps. The possible impact on WAP sales of the extension of 5G network coverage could well make 2020 a challenging year for wireless networking vendors, especially if businesses opt to rely on 5G networks in some cases rather than Wi-Fi networks.

London, 15 November 2019 – As Brexit looms, the IT distribution channel Enterprise market in Ireland is thriving with double-digit growth in the server, storage and networking segments, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

                                WE Enterprise market revenue growth

In a market that is declining overall in West Europe (WE), there were large year-on-year revenue increases in Ireland during both Q2 2019 (+34.8%) and Q3 2019 (+26%). In contrast, the UK Enterprise market declined by -14% in Q3 2019 – the second-worst performance of any WE country.

                               WE Enterprise Server market revenue growth

                    WE Enterprise Server market revenue growth by categories

Enterprise server segment is one of the drivers of the market in Ireland. Server systems and server upgrades have made equal contributions to growth over the two last quarters, showing that companies are not only upgrading existing systems but also buying new ones. In particular, datacentre categories, such as Blade and high-end rack servers, are enjoying a noticeable upturn.

                            WE Enterprise Storage market revenue growth

The Enterprise storage market is also participating in the feast. During a strong Q3 2019, backups and disk array systems led the pack in terms of revenues – but SSD storage upgrades saw an impressive +67.3% year-on-year increase in units with +92% more total addressable capacity (i.e. gigabytes) sold in Q3 2019 than in Q3 2018.

                        WE Enterprise Networking market revenue growth

Enterprise networking has not been left behind: the Irish market has enjoyed the fourth-highest growth in West Europe over both the latest quarters of 2019.

These figures suggest that, with the Brexit deadline looming, companies have started to get real about the need to have back-up on EU soil to avoid data compliance issues if the UK leaves the EU on a no-deal basis or with a light deal. There is little doubt that the current delays in Westminster are working in Ireland’s favour, but the country has an advantageous business and digital tax environment and state-of-the-art off-island fibre connectivity that make it an attractive place to settle for digital companies looking for European home. There are already 55 active data centres in Ireland, another 35 in the pipeline, with 8 of these under construction. Continuing massive investment by Google, Amazon, SAP and others is also pushing the Irish market up. It will be interesting to follow the evolution of the Enterprise market over the next few months – and through until the end of the proposed transition period in December 2020 (if it is put in place) – as it will help us understand how much of the growth observed in Ireland over the two last quarters is Brexit related.

London, 16 January 2020 – Shipments of Industrial* 3D printers priced at $100K+ were up by +8% in Q3 2019 compared to the same period the previous year. This key sector – which accounted for almost 70% of all 3D printer revenues for the period – saw even more impressive shipment growth of +12% on a trailing twelve month (TTM) basis. The increase came as a surprise given the headwinds many vendors reported in the second half of the year: reduced demand from the struggling automotive sector, sluggish European economies and a generally weak global industrial manufacturing market all impacted the bottom line of many companies in the third quarter.

In the Industrial polymer 3D printer market, HP (now #2 in global shipments) saw excellent growth, shipping +347% more printers in Q3 2019 than in Q3 2018 as it continued to roll out its more affordable colour-capable units as well as began to ship the newest iteration of its most advanced, highest-end, production-focused models in volume. The Chinese domestic market also grew, mostly thanks to leading Chinese vendor UnionTech.

While Industrial metal printers made up just 32% of unit shipments in the class over this period, they accounted for just over 51% of revenues; metal 3D printing is one of the fastest growing additive manufacturing segments and has seen shipments grow at an average rate of +30% over the last two years. However, the dominant technology – powder bed fusion – began to struggle in the second half of 2019. In the third quarter, -19% fewer metal powder bed fusion 3D printers shipped than in the same quarter the previous year, with market leaders EOS and GE Additive both seeing weaker shipments not only for the quarter but for the trailing 12-months as well. Even so, aggregated shipments of metal 3D printers grew by +11% as a different technology began to take centre stage, driven by Desktop Metal and Markforged. The new crop of material extrusion metal 3D Printers – which saw year-on-year shipment increases of +43% – addresses new markets for prototyping and entry-level metal printing. Since many of these markets are outside the aerospace, automotive and medical sectors that currently use powder bed fusion machines, the growth in shipments of extrusion models was not related to the decline in those of the other type of machine.

Chart 1: Global Industrial price class 3D printer shipments and growth by material

There was good growth in North America and China during Q3 2019, where year-on-year increases in Industrial 3D printer shipments were +22% and +36% respectively, while the global #2 market, Western Europe, saw shipments fall by -28%. Sales in this sector of the market tend to be more provincial than in other industries: there is less East–West trade because of logistics (most Industrial printers are very large and very heavy) and because of less-than-favourable global trade conditions which make it difficult for emerging technologies like 3D printing to flourish. These trends held true in the third quarter when Chinese vendors flourished in domestic China while US and European vendors again saw most of their business come from the West.

Other printer classes

Of the three other major price classes for finished-good printers - Personal, Professional and Design – shipments of printers in the Professional class were most notable. Printer shipments in the third quarter in the Design segment was largely flat and shipments of Personal class printers continued to struggle, losing ground to kit-based solutions like those from China's Creality3D. The Professional segment continued to shine however, growing by an excellent +21% on the previous year and a solid +17% on a TTM basis. Many vendors who formerly focused on the yet-to-explode consumer market have shifted their product lines to move into this price class. Especially noteworthy in the Professional class in the quarter was the performance of Formlabs which finally began shipping new models in volume against strong pent-up demand and surged to the top of the market in this class as the availability of their new products was bolstered by glowing reviews.

Chart 2: Global 3D printer unit shipments and TTM growth by price class (note two scales)

Many forecasts for Q4 2019 and on into 2020 turned a bit cautious toward the year end due, in part, to weaker demand from key geographies, to softening orders from key vertical markets, and to uncertainties associated with global trade. The period was also marked by significant managerial changes atop leading companies, also contributing to near-term uncertainty.

* 3D printer segment by price class: INDUSTRIAL ≥ $100K, DESIGN = $20K–$100K, PROFESSIONAL = $2.5K–$20K, PERSONAL ≤ $2.5K (excludes do-it-yourself DIY kit printers)

The growing number of installed 3D printers focused on mass-production is leading to higher global utilisation of materials

London, 07 November 2019 – Only 28% of installed 3D printers costing over $5,000 fall into the INDUSTRIAL* price class, but they accounted for 56% of all material used in the last year. There are currently more than twice as many INDUSTRIAL polymer (plastics) printers than metals printers installed but, in recent years, the metals side of the market has seen greater growth in both printer shipments and materials utilisation. On a trailing- twelve-month (TTM) basis through to Q2 2019, INDUSTRIAL metal based 3D printers used 21% more material than in the previous year.

The two major trends that have driven material utilisation over recent years are: (1) the growth in the installed printer base; and (2) the increasing use of new printers for serial mass-production rather than just prototyping. 3D printing has always excelled in mass-customisation (making thousands of slightly different parts for items such as clear dental aligners or hearing aids), but its ability to produce an ever-larger number of the same good is being made use of more often. What is considered ‘mass-production’ cannot be defined in terms of specific unit volumes because it is relative to the market being described: it means something totally different for consumer electronics (where products need to be produced in their millions) than in, say, aerospace (where there is a market for only hundreds of a particular product). Each new generation of INDUSTRIAL 3D printer that has hit the market has pushed the envelope so that many printers are now able to produce not just hundreds of the same item in a reliable manner but tens – or even hundreds – of thousands. And, as more and more installed printers are able to mass-produce goods, the amount of material they require inevitably increases.

Global shipments of metals 3D printers increased by +26% in 2018. Most of these (83%) were of the INDUSTRIAL varieties that are best suited to serial mass-production (either powder bed fusion or binder jetting). The resultant combination of a growing base and increased ability to produce more goods resulted in the use of +21% more material by INDUSTRIAL metals printers over the last year.

INDUSTRIAL- class polymers printing has also seen gains over the last year with consumption up by +13% on a TTM basis. Consumption of the sub-set of polymers called thermoplastics rose by +11% – mostly thanks to the general trend toward the use of power bed fusion printers for serial production and, in particular, a growing installed base of models from HP, which saw material utilisation rise +40% over the year. Photopolymers saw a year-on-year increase in materials use of +19% thanks to the growing number of DLP-based vat photopolymerisation printers installed – including new machines from Carbon as well as Figure-4/NextDent machines from 3D Systems and Envision One printers from EnvisionTEC.

Chart 1: Global material utilisation (Millions/kg) of

INDUSTRIAL-class 3D printers

While companies are continuing to try to bring down the price of materials (which remains much higher, weight-for-weight, than that of those used in conventional manufacturing), the growing installed base means that the revenues they generate is still rising. Revenues from materials for INDUSTRIAL metals-focused additive manufacturing machines were up +20% on a TTM basis, and those from polymers for INDUSTRIAL printing up by +12%.

Chart 2: Revenues ($ billions) from INDUSTRIAL* 3D printer materials