London, UK - 23rd March 2026 - The European PC market is entering a period of short-term resilience followed by mounting structural pressure, as memory shortages reshape pricing dynamics and channel behaviour, according to new insights from global market intelligence firm CONTEXT.
 

Analysis from CONTEXT shows that despite a recent softening in weekly sales trends, the market continues to deliver solid year-on-year growth in early 2026. Notebook revenues in European distribution rose by 10% and desktops by 18% across the first 10 weeks of the year, reflecting sustained refresh demand but more importantly,  a wave of forward purchasing by the channel.

This momentum is being driven in part by resellers accelerating orders to secure devices at pre-inflation cost levels, as memory shortages continue to push component prices sharply upwards.

“Market performance remains strong on the surface, but it is being fuelled by pull-forward demand rather than long-term stability,” said Marie-Christine Pygott, senior analyst at CONTEXT. “Partners are actively buying ahead to secure 2025 price structures, knowing that this window is closing fast.”

The impact of memory shortages is now being felt across the entire value chain. Memory prices in key European markets have risen to as much as three to four times their levels in Q3 2025, creating significant volatility and forcing vendors to adjust pricing strategies. Rather than relying solely on list price increases, many are reducing promotions, tightening discounting, and shortening quote validity periods to manage risk.

As a result, IT buyers are facing growing budget constraints, with the same spend now delivering significantly fewer devices than just six months ago.

Regional dynamics further highlight the uneven nature of the current market. France is seeing particularly strong growth, driven by commercial demand and aggressive stock-building through distribution, while Germany remains more cautious. The UK, meanwhile, has shown flat performance year-on-year, following a stronger comparative period in 2025.

Despite rising component costs, average selling prices in distribution have yet to fully reflect the increase. This is due to a temporary buffer created by inventory purchased at 2025 cost levels, which continues to support relatively stable pricing across the channel.

However, this buffer is expected to diminish rapidly.

“Distributor inventory is currently insulating parts of the market from the full impact of memory inflation, but this is a temporary effect,” added Marie-Christine. “As we move towards the end of Q2 and into Q3, that stock will run out, and pricing will inevitably reset in line with underlying component costs.”

CONTEXT expects the PC market to remain relatively robust through the first half of 2026, supported by this inventory buffer and ongoing refresh cycles, including demand linked to the end of Windows 10 support.

Looking ahead, however, the outlook becomes more constrained. As channel inventory depletes and supply tightens, pricing pressures are expected to intensify, leading to a more cautious demand environment in the second half of the year.

“Businesses need to prepare for a very different market dynamic in the second half,” Marie-Christine concluded. “What we are seeing now is not a slowdown, but a shift. The real test will come when supply tightens and pricing fully catches up with the reality of the component market.”

About CONTEXT

CONTEXT is a B Corp certified provider of market intelligence and analytics for the global technology industry. The company works with leading manufacturers, distributors and investors to support strategic decision-making through advanced forecasting, analytics and data management. CONTEXT systems track more than £200 billion in annual technology sales transactions, supported by a global team of over 400 professionals operating in more than 35 countries.

Press contact
Funda Cizgenakad
T: +44 7876 616 246
E: Funda@contextworld.com