The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Driving Q2 PC Sales Growth

The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Driving Q2 PC Sales Growth

The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Driving Q2 PC Sales Growth

PC sales through European distribution had an underwhelming start to the year due to poor performance in the previous year. They fell by –3.3% year–on–year (YoY) in units and by –5.5% in revenue in Q1, with economic headwinds exerting negative pressure on demand.

For Q2 and beyond, we are cautiously optimistic about better times ahead, although the strength of the recovery will continue to depend on how well the European economy rebounds.

Mobile computing sales set for positive growth

For mobile computing (notebooks, notebook workstations, and tablets), we are predicting a range of 0.9% to 8.9% YoY growth in unit sales in Q2 2024. Our full–year forecast is 1.1% to 7.6% YoY unit sales growth and 0.9% to 7.2% YoY revenue growth. That may sound more positive than it is, however, as we need unit sales growth of roughly 8% to return to the volumes we had before the pandemic.

That said, the stock situation is fairly balanced and much better than last year. Weaker comparatives to a year ago should boost growth figures. Additionally, we are hopeful that economic conditions will improve in the second half of 2024, with anticipated interest rate cuts. This, along with the Windows 11 transition, should help to spur demand.

Subdued desktop spend continues

Growth is weaker overall in desktop PCs due to a weaker YoY impact on sales and an ongoing shift towards mobile products. That is why we will only see isolated pockets of growth in Q2, for example, in the public sector. The second half of the year will see better performance thanks to more favourable YoY comparisons, the reemergence of delayed purchases, and Windows 11.

Overall, however, the forecast for desktop PC growth is a range of –8.3% to 0.1% in YoY unit sales for Q2 2024. For 2024 as a whole, our forecast is –3.4% to 2.7% YoY for unit sales and –4.1% to 1.8% for YoY revenue sales. All eyes are on the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

Stay tuned for more insights in the next Forecast Fridays instalment!  To access the full report please visit our Online Shop.  


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