March 2026 was not an ordinary month. It delivered a landmark milestone, a memory market in freefall, and a structural signal that the AI revolution has decisively moved from software into silicon. For anyone operating in the IT channel, the dynamics that played out this month will define commercial strategy well into the second half of the year.

A Milestone Five Years in the Making

This month marked the 300th edition of the Weekly IT Industry Forum, a series that began in the first lockdown of 2020, born of necessity and sustained by relevance. What started as a stopgap for a grounded industry has become a benchmark for channel intelligence across Europe and beyond. The journey from that first remote session to the 300th is, in miniature, the story of how the IT industry has adapted: faster, more distributed, and more analytically rigorous than it has ever been.

MWC 2026: AI Is No Longer a Product, It’s an Architecture

Mobile World Congress in Barcelona set the tone for the year. The dominant takeaway was not a device or a platform; it was a principle. AI has matured beyond a collection of discrete applications. It is now an orchestra: hardware, software, and connectivity converging into a single, interdependent system where each layer must perform for the whole to function.

The implications for the channel are structural. Software’s recent leapfrog has exposed a critical gap in physical infrastructure. Energy-efficient processing and high-capacity storage are no longer “nice to have” capabilities; they are load-bearing pillars of the AI stack. Hardware is back at the centre of the conversation, and procurement cycles are adjusting accordingly.

The Memory Crisis: From Shortage to Panic

If MWC set the strategic context, the memory market provided the month’s most visceral commercial reality. The sustained pressure of AI-driven demand has produced pricing dynamics that are now crossing the threshold from disruptive to destabilising.

The headline numbers tell the story plainly:

• Micron’s blowout quarter: Revenue nearly tripled year-on-year, reaching just under $24 billion, a figure that reflects not an anomaly but a structural shift in where technology investment is flowing.
• RAM prices in freefall: In several European markets, RAM prices have quadrupled over six months. The word “volatile” understates what buyers are now navigating.
• The distributor buffer is draining: Distributors have been absorbing the shock by selling inventory purchased at 2025 prices. That insulation is running out. Old-cost stock is expected to be exhausted by summer, and the period that follows (particularly in markets like France) will be defined by panic buying as resellers race to lock in supply before spot-market prices bite.

For channel players, the message is unambiguous: procurement decisions delayed are margin points surrendered.

Infrastructure: The Two-Phase Build-Out

The enterprise sector is moving through a sequenced infrastructure expansion, and understanding where each market sits in that sequence is now a competitive differentiator.

01  COMPUTE FIRST

Germany and the UK are deep in the first phase, with double-digit server revenue growth. The UK is performing notably above its typical Q1 seasonal baseline, a signal of structural demand rather than calendar rhythm.

02  STORAGE SECOND

Poland and Spain are entering the follow-on phase, with legacy refresh cycles commencing. This is where the next wave of significant volume will materialise.

03  THE SSD / HDD SPLIT

NAND shortages are pushing SSD prices upward, while high-capacity HDDs (essential for storing the cold data that trains Large Language Models) are already booked out for the remainder of 2026. Vendors who secured long-term HDD commitments early are sitting on a significant commercial advantage.

Regional Spotlights: Five Markets to Watch

The macro picture is complex, but the regional texture is where the actionable intelligence lies.

• Spain: Next Generation EU funds remain a powerful demand driver, with a hard execution deadline of 31 August 2026 keeping the business channel under productive pressure. The clock is an accelerant.
• The Nordics: Software continues to outperform, with the region leading Europe in recent weeks. A bellwether for where the rest of the continent is heading.
• Brazil: Positioning as a global hub for sustainable AI data centres. A long-term play, but one gaining credibility with each infrastructure announcement.
• Argentina: Entering a normalisation cycle following a recovery year in 2025. A market demanding precision and patience in equal measure.
• UK: Consumer confidence remains depressed, dragged by cost-of-living pressures and an unusually wet start to the year that reduced retail footfall. The enterprise and SMB channels tell a different, more constructive story.

Cybersecurity: The Talent Gap Is the Market

Cybersecurity remains a non-negotiable line item in every deal. Volume at the start of 2026 felt slightly softer than the prior year’s pace, but the structural story is one of accelerating demand expressed through a different channel.

In Germany, MSP growth hit 72% this quarter. Firms are not choosing to outsource security operations out of preference; they are doing so because the alternative, hiring in-house, is no longer viable. A 75% talent gap in the cybersecurity workforce, combined with strict new regulatory reporting deadlines, has made MSPs the path of least resistance for compliance. That dynamic is not reversing. It is intensifying.

Looking Into Q2: Complexity Is the Forecast

Q1 has outperformed expectations in several regions, but the second half of 2026 remains genuinely difficult to model. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to affect shipping routes and energy costs, and the memory market’s trajectory will depend heavily on whether supply catches up with AI-driven demand or whether the panic-buying cycle entrenches higher price floors.

The competitive landscape is being redrawn in real time. The vendors who move with analytical precision, reading the phase each market is in, securing supply ahead of the curve, and positioning MSP and security capabilities as strategic assets rather than add-ons, will find Q2 considerably more rewarding than those who are still reacting to March.

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