February 2026 proved to be a month that demanded close attention. Session after session, one topic consistently rose to the top of the agenda: a component supply challenge that is now very much a reality, with tangible implications for channel businesses.

Here is what stood out across the month.

The Component Crisis: From Background Noise to Defining Story

If there was one story threading its way through every session this month, it was the accelerating shortage of RAM and SSDs, and the price consequences that are following hard behind it.

The root cause is not mysterious. The appetite of hyperscale data centres for high-bandwidth memory is consuming the vast majority of global silicon production. High-bandwidth chips reportedly need three times as much silicon as standard memory, which means that every server rack spinning up to run an AI workload is effectively crowding out supply for everything else. One industry veteran with four decades of experience described the current supply-demand mismatch as the most unprecedented he had ever seen. That is not a small claim.

The numbers back this up. Our pricing index, built on a mid-2025 baseline before the worst of the disruption hit, shows RAM prices rising sharply from around last summer, with the most dramatic jumps in the final quarter of the year. SSDs have followed a similar path. In January's distribution data, RAM average selling prices were up 136% year-on-year. Meanwhile, unit volumes across most hardware categories were actually falling. So the revenue growth we are seeing in the indices is not a demand story. It is an inflation story, and that distinction matters.

Western Digital and Seagate confirmed the picture further by announcing that their entire planned production for 2026 has already been pre-sold, absorbed by the hyperscalers before a single unit has shipped. With production unable to scale quickly, most in the room expect this to run well into 2027.

How the Channel Is Responding

The supply squeeze is already changing behaviour. The most visible shift is a wave of order pull-in, with resellers stocking up early to secure inventory at today's prices before the next round of increases lands. It is flattering short-term revenue numbers, but it is also masking what may be genuine underlying softness in demand.

Pricing quotes are becoming a particular headache. Where 30-day price commitments were once standard, many are now being issued for a fortnight, sometimes less. Some vendors have begun introducing terms that allow repricing or cancellation if costs move before delivery. For a corporate buyer who already has budget sign-off for a project, being told mid-process that the price has changed is more than inconvenient. It is a governance problem.

Buyers are starting to look for ways around the problem. Cloud, device-as-a-service and deferred rollouts are all being considered. There is also a genuine opportunity opening up for the refurbished device market. With new hardware scarce and expensive, used devices with third-party warranties are starting to look like a sensible business decision rather than a compromise, which is also good news for ESG commitments around extending device lifespans.

ISE Barcelona: AI Takes Centre Stage

February also brought ISE in Barcelona, the world's leading event for the AV and systems integration industry. This year attracted 93,000 visitors, up 8% on last year, across 101,000 square metres of show floor. The event is clearly still growing.

The most striking thing was what was missing. After two years of sustainability-heavy messaging, the ESG narrative had largely disappeared from the stands, replaced by AI integration at almost every turn. Smart boardroom screens that compile meeting notes, interactive displays repurposed from education into commercial settings, hardware products with AI software baked in as a selling point rather than a feature. The industry's focus has shifted, and it has shifted fast.

Asian vendors were notably more visible than in previous years, and their presence is putting real pressure on average selling prices. ePaper solutions also drew interest, though the consensus was that it needs considerably more time before it sees any meaningful market traction. Deeper coverage from our analysts at the event is expected over the coming weeks.

Enterprise Networking: Wi-Fi 8 Already on the Horizon

Much of the channel is still rolling out Wi-Fi 7, but this month Broadcom announced the first enterprise-grade Wi-Fi 8 solution, a unified access point and switching product positioned specifically for AI-ready environments. MediaTek had made noise at CES, but that was consumer-focused. The Broadcom announcement is the first with real enterprise credentials, and it signals where the market is heading sooner than many expected.

The HPE-Juniper integration also came into focus, with the Winter Olympics providing a public proof point. The combined network used Juniper's Marvis assistant alongside HP's Aruba Central platform, with generative AI enabling the network to manage and troubleshoot itself rather than simply report problems upward. Whether or not you follow Olympic sport, that is worth paying attention to.

Regional Spotlights: From the Baltics to EMEA

The Baltic states were a genuine highlight this month. After a strong 2025 that closed with 26% year-on-year growth in Q4, the region is set to benefit from a record influx of EU funding worth 2.8 billion euros, with a substantial portion earmarked for defence infrastructure. For distributor partners in the region, that is a meaningful pipeline. Estonia also outperformed its own forecasts, driven by private demand and wages growth, with a survey showing 42% of Estonians expecting their financial situation to improve this year.

Across the wider European picture, January held up well. Spain is performing strongly, supported by corporate and defence-related project spend. Poland remains a reliable growth market, partly on the back of education sector activity. Italy, however, continues to struggle. There is no single big deal driving things there and demand remains soft. Germany is an interesting case: the indices look strong, but anecdotal feedback from system integrators suggests that fast-moving prices are making it very hard to hold a project together from quote to delivery.

Workstations were a bright spot at the EMEA level, with both desktop and notebook segments growing in double digits in Q4 2025. Demand for high-performance computing, driven at least in part by AI workloads, is clearly contributing.

The Bigger Picture: Does AI Productivity Live Up to the Hype?

One moment from the final week deserves a mention on its own. A recent assessment of AI's actual productivity impact in the US found, in short, almost none at an organisational level. AI is useful for individuals. The jump to enterprise-wide productivity gains requires a depth of organisational change that takes years to achieve, not a software rollout.

It is worth sitting with that for a moment. The supply crisis gripping the channel right now is being driven, more than anything else, by AI infrastructure investment. Yet the returns on that investment may arrive considerably later than the market is currently pricing in. As one contributor put it, nothing kills high prices quite like high prices. Buyers will find workarounds, defer decisions, or simply wait. The market has a way of correcting itself.

Looking Ahead

March is unlikely to be quieter. Component pricing will keep evolving and the tension between rising prices and actual volume demand will be one of the more interesting things to watch. The PC accessories market is picking up following the refresh cycle, workstations remain solid, and the regional picture has enough variation to keep things interesting.

The channel has always been good at finding its footing in uncertain conditions. How it handles this particular combination of factors will be worth watching closely.

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