Welcome to the first edition of Forecast Fridays, where we highlight the trends and predictions shaping the IT industry, with insights from the CONTEXT Q1 2024 Forecast Report.

Overall and despite the looming economic and political challenges, our forecast suggests a 2.3% growth in IT industry revenues, just below the October 2024 projection of 2.6%. Anticipating a fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth in Q1 2024, optimism stems from a potential rebound in Q2 2024 as comparisons against the declines of 2023 come into play.

Positive trends for Personal Systems

The PC market faced significant challenges in 2023, with strong declines in unit sales and revenues. However, despite a tough Q4, there were pockets of growth. Consumer sales saw an uptick in some countries, driven by efforts to clear aging stock, while the education sector boosted the commercial segment, particularly in Italy and Poland.

According to our market insights, Q1 2024 is predicted to see a year–on–year (YoY performance in unit sales of mobile computing devices between –2.5% and 7.1%. The first half of the year is expected to witness a trend improvement, with local growth in education markets and impending refreshes. However, Germany’s economic struggles may impact overall growth.

The second half of 2024 holds promise, with expectations of reduced inflation leading to potential interest rate cuts in the Eurozone and the UK. This could accelerate demand, addressing previously delayed purchases.

The commercial market is set for new momentum as companies face the inevitability of refreshes, expiring warranties, and the transition to Windows 11. The introduction of new technologies, including AI–based PCs, is expected to make waves toward the end of the year.

Desktop Computers on the Rebound

Predictions for desktop computers in Q1 2024 indicate a growth range between –8.9% and 0.6% YoY. The ongoing shift to mobile computing may limit sales, but the figures are more favorable than before, suggesting a slight improvement in the first half. Regional pockets of growth, such as public-sector tenders in Italy and Spain, are expected.

In light of prevailing economic challenges, the necessity for PC refresh cycles and the introduction of cutting–edge technologies are expected to incrementally enhance conditions in 2024. Stay tuned for more forecast insights next Friday.

To access the full forecast report, please request the report here .