Following our exclusive webinar on June
5th, where CONTEXT and Circana joined forces to dive into the future
of the PC market with industry experts, we decode the 2025 PC
landscape, exploring the impact of tariffs, upgrade cycles, and the
Windows 10 End of Support.
The PC market in 2025 presents a
complex landscape shaped by the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline,
evolving AI PC adoption, and unprecedented trade policy uncertainty.
Our latest analysis, drawing from CONTEXT's comprehensive data across
European markets, reveals a market poised for growth—albeit tempered
by significant headwinds.
Current market dynamics reveal bifurcated recovery patterns
CONTEXT's data shows Q1 2025
delivered encouraging acceleration in YoY growth performances across
many European markets, driven primarily by Windows 11 refresh
activities. We observed modest notebook growth and exceptional
desktop results, with the consumer environment showing marked
improvement against last year's weak baseline.
However, our data reveals refresh
activities remain concentrated amongst large organisations, whilst
small and medium enterprises exercise caution. This hesitancy reflects
broader market uncertainty, with smaller organisations postponing
technology investments despite clear infrastructure needs. The public
sector similarly lags behind private enterprise adoption rates.
Windows 10 end-of-support drives market opportunity
The October 2025 Windows 10
end-of-support date represents the primary catalyst for market growth
through 2025. CONTEXT's data reveals substantial device volumes from
the 2020-2021 peak now approaching natural refresh cycles, creating
compelling replacement demand.
This convergence benefits AI PC
adoption, with CONTEXT's data showing AI-capable systems reaching 35%
share across Western European markets. However, our analysis reveals
this adoption stems from supply-side factors rather than demand-driven
purchasing. As non-NPU products phase out, organisations naturally
migrate to AI-capable alternatives without necessarily seeking AI
functionality. Genuine demand-driven adoption will likely emerge in
2026 as software capabilities mature.
European forecast reflects measured growth amid uncertainty
CONTEXT's 2025 forecast for
European mobile systems projects 6% YoY unit growth, with revenues
advancing 8% driven by favourable product mix shifts. Revenue
outperformance reflects increased AI PC penetration and reduced
education segment concentration.
We anticipate growth acceleration
in the second half of 2025, driven by Windows 10 end-of-support
urgency. However, projections remain more measured than initially
anticipated, reflecting uncertainty's dampening effect on investment decisions.
Desktop markets present stronger
fundamentals, with CONTEXT forecasting 12% YoY growth. This reflects
the desktop installed base's advanced age profile—some systems remain
unrefreshed for five to six years. Nevertheless, even with
double-digit growth, 2025 volumes will remain substantially below 2019 levels.
Tariff implications create market complexity
Announced tariff frameworks
introduce complexity for European PC markets, despite limited
initial direct impact compared to US disruption. The current 20%
reciprocal tariff—temporarily paused until 9th July—creates indirect
pressure through revised economic growth projections.
Our retail data partners report
minimal stockpiling behaviour in European markets, contrasting with US
channel dynamics. Distribution partners indicate existing Windows 10
end-of-support inventory planning leaves limited capacity for
additional tariff-anticipatory stocking.
Price increases appear inevitable
from Q3 2025 onwards, though magnitude remains uncertain pending
final tariff determinations. CONTEXT expects commercial segments
will absorb portions of these increases through supply chain economics.
Market outlook balances opportunity with caution
The 2025 PC landscape presents
substantial opportunity through Windows 10 end-of-support
requirements, supported by natural refresh cycles. CONTEXT's data
indicates healthy underlying demand fundamentals, particularly amongst
enterprise segments with urgent infrastructure needs.
However, realising this potential
requires navigating significant headwinds. Small and medium
enterprises may defer investments until greater certainty emerges,
potentially extending refresh cycles into 2026. Success requires
balancing opportunistic growth initiatives with prudent risk
management, maintaining supply chain flexibility, and leveraging
comprehensive market intelligence.
Ready to navigate the evolving PC landscape with confidence?
CONTEXT's comprehensive retail and commercial
data and market intelligence provide the insights you need to make
informed decisions in 2025's complex market environment. Contact our
team to discuss how our European market data can support your
strategic planning and help you capitalise on the Windows 10 refresh
opportunity whilst managing tariff-related risks