Following our exclusive webinar on June 5th, where CONTEXT and Circana joined forces to dive into the future of the PC market with industry experts, we decode the 2025 PC landscape, exploring the impact of tariffs, upgrade cycles, and the Windows 10 End of Support.

The PC market in 2025 presents a complex landscape shaped by the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline, evolving AI PC adoption, and unprecedented trade policy uncertainty. Our latest analysis, drawing from CONTEXT's comprehensive data across European markets, reveals a market poised for growth—albeit tempered by significant headwinds.

Current market dynamics reveal bifurcated recovery patterns

CONTEXT's data shows Q1 2025 delivered encouraging acceleration in YoY growth performances across many European markets, driven primarily by Windows 11 refresh activities. We observed modest notebook growth and exceptional desktop results, with the consumer environment showing marked improvement against last year's weak baseline.

However, our data reveals refresh activities remain concentrated amongst large organisations, whilst small and medium enterprises exercise caution. This hesitancy reflects broader market uncertainty, with smaller organisations postponing technology investments despite clear infrastructure needs. The public sector similarly lags behind private enterprise adoption rates.

Windows 10 end-of-support drives market opportunity

The October 2025 Windows 10 end-of-support date represents the primary catalyst for market growth through 2025. CONTEXT's data reveals substantial device volumes from the 2020-2021 peak now approaching natural refresh cycles, creating compelling replacement demand.

This convergence benefits AI PC adoption, with CONTEXT's data showing AI-capable systems reaching 35% share across Western European markets. However, our analysis reveals this adoption stems from supply-side factors rather than demand-driven purchasing. As non-NPU products phase out, organisations naturally migrate to AI-capable alternatives without necessarily seeking AI functionality. Genuine demand-driven adoption will likely emerge in 2026 as software capabilities mature.

European forecast reflects measured growth amid uncertainty

CONTEXT's 2025 forecast for European mobile systems projects 6% YoY unit growth, with revenues advancing 8% driven by favourable product mix shifts. Revenue outperformance reflects increased AI PC penetration and reduced education segment concentration.

We anticipate growth acceleration in the second half of 2025, driven by Windows 10 end-of-support urgency. However, projections remain more measured than initially anticipated, reflecting uncertainty's dampening effect on investment decisions.

Desktop markets present stronger fundamentals, with CONTEXT forecasting 12% YoY growth. This reflects the desktop installed base's advanced age profile—some systems remain unrefreshed for five to six years. Nevertheless, even with double-digit growth, 2025 volumes will remain substantially below 2019 levels.

Tariff implications create market complexity

Announced tariff frameworks introduce complexity for European PC markets, despite limited initial direct impact compared to US disruption. The current 20% reciprocal tariff—temporarily paused until 9th July—creates indirect pressure through revised economic growth projections.

Our retail data partners report minimal stockpiling behaviour in European markets, contrasting with US channel dynamics. Distribution partners indicate existing Windows 10 end-of-support inventory planning leaves limited capacity for additional tariff-anticipatory stocking.

Price increases appear inevitable from Q3 2025 onwards, though magnitude remains uncertain pending final tariff determinations. CONTEXT expects commercial segments will absorb portions of these increases through supply chain economics.

Market outlook balances opportunity with caution

The 2025 PC landscape presents substantial opportunity through Windows 10 end-of-support requirements, supported by natural refresh cycles. CONTEXT's data indicates healthy underlying demand fundamentals, particularly amongst enterprise segments with urgent infrastructure needs.

However, realising this potential requires navigating significant headwinds. Small and medium enterprises may defer investments until greater certainty emerges, potentially extending refresh cycles into 2026. Success requires balancing opportunistic growth initiatives with prudent risk management, maintaining supply chain flexibility, and leveraging comprehensive market intelligence.

Ready to navigate the evolving PC landscape with confidence?

CONTEXT's comprehensive retail and commercial data and market intelligence provide the insights you need to make informed decisions in 2025's complex market environment. Contact our team to discuss how our European market data can support your strategic planning and help you capitalise on the Windows 10 refresh opportunity whilst managing tariff-related risks