AI PC Momentum Builds as Windows 10 Deadline Drives Strong Notebook and Desktop Growth
London, 15th September 2025 - The European PC market has recorded robust growth in Q3 2025 as businesses and consumers prepare for the end of support for Windows 10 at the end of October. According to the latest distribution data from global market intelligence firm CONTEXT, both notebooks and desktops are experiencing strong demand, with the AI PC category accounting for a significant share.
In the first two months of Q3, desktop revenues surged 30.3% year-on-year, while notebooks rose 11.3%. This acceleration builds on already impressive growth in Q2, fuelled by the long-overdue refresh of ageing installed bases and the looming operating system migration.
Commercial demand is proving particularly strong, with notebook sales to businesses up by more than 13% year-on-year, as SMBs increasingly engage in the Windows 11 refresh cycle. Consumer notebook sales also climbed, though at a slower pace, growing by more than 8% year-on-year.
At country level, August saw double-digit year-on-year notebook revenue growth across most of the top six European markets, with standout performances in Germany (+18%) and Spain (+48%). Desktops also showed broad-based growth, driven by both consumer and commercial demand and by public sector investment programmes, particularly in Germany.
AI-capable notebooks, those featuring Neural Processing Units (NPUs), are now stabilising at around 39–40% of total notebook unit sales across European distribution. The share is notably higher in commercial channels (46%) compared with consumer channels (29%).
Within this segment, the more powerful Copilot+ PCs - featuring 40+ TOPS NPUs - are slowly beginning to make a bigger impact. These devices now represent 15% of all AI-capable notebook unit sales, with growth supported by new processor vendors entering the market, a wider product variety, and recent price reductions that have stimulated demand.
“The AI PC market is beginning to find its footing in Europe,” said Marie-Christine Pigott, Senior Analyst at CONTEXT. “While uptake was initially slower than the industry anticipated, we are now seeing more progress. In the Copilot+ category, demand is still restrained, but recent data and market feedback suggest we could be at a turning point.The combination of broader vendor participation, richer product choice, and more competitive pricing is creating the conditions for more sustainable growth.”
“But even more importantly, with the Windows 10 deadline acting as a catalyst for refresh, AI-capable devices are increasingly positioned as the future-ready option for businesses that want to ensure their PCs are powerful and secure enough for future AI applications , added Marie-Christine.
COUNTRY insights
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Early 2025-Q3 (July & August)
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|
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United Kingdom |
13.0% |
|
Germany |
21.4% |
|
Spain |
33.8% |
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Netherlands |
-4.7% |
|
France |
15.2% |
|
Poland |
5.7% |
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Switzerland |
21.3% |
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Italy |
15.9% |
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Belgium |
19.2% |
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Czechia |
-2.1% |
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Sweden |
4.5% |
|
Portugal |
25.0% |
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Denmark |
27.3% |
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Finland |
30.0% |
|
Austria |
19.9% |
|
Norway |
31.1% |
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Ireland |
7.2% |
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Estonia |
6.8% |
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Lithuania |
-10.6% |
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Slovakia |
3.1% |
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Latvia |
17.7% |