Identity security for autonomous systems emerges as major new investment driver, as wave of EU regulation prepares to reshape the market

London, UK - 8th June 2026 - European organisations are beginning to invest in securing artificial intelligence systems that operate without direct human oversight, according to new analysis from global market intelligence firm CONTEXT. 

“The development marks a meaningful shift in how businesses are approaching cybersecurity”, said Joe Turner, VP of Research at CONTEXT. “As the boundaries of what needs to be protected expand beyond people and devices to include autonomous AI agents making independent decisions across corporate infrastructure.”

CONTEXT's Q2 2026 Forecast Report <link> identifies investment in identity-centric security models as one of the fastest-accelerating areas of cybersecurity spending in Q1 2026. The driver is straightforward: as enterprises deploy AI systems capable of acting autonomously, those systems create new identities within corporate networks that carry real access privileges and real risk. Securing them requires a different approach from traditional endpoint or perimeter protection, and demand for the relevant tools and architectures grew significantly in the quarter.

The shift is happening alongside a broader move towards Zero Trust architectures and automated compliance solutions. Taken together, these trends point to an investment cycle that is fundamentally different in character from the one that preceded it. Previous waves of cybersecurity spending were largely reactive, triggered by breaches or hardware refresh cycles. The current cycle is being shaped by structural changes in how organisations operate, with AI adoption and regulatory pressure combining to force a more systematic reassessment of security posture.

On the regulatory side, the pressure is about to intensify considerably. NIS2, DORA and the AI Act are all expected to drive significant compliance-related spending through the second half of 2026, as organisations face the prospect of tighter requirements and potentially substantial financial penalties for non-compliance. CONTEXT's outlook for cybersecurity software growth accelerating sharply through the remainder of the year is built largely on this dynamic.

The headline Q1 software growth figure of 1.4% year on year understates the underlying momentum. The comparison period, Q1 2025, saw cybersecurity software revenues grow by nearly 20%, making it one of the toughest comparable quarters in the market's recent history. That the market grew at all against that base, while simultaneously absorbing budget pressure from competing PC and infrastructure priorities, suggests demand is more resilient than the headline number implies.

"The nature of what organisations need to secure is changing faster than most security strategies have kept pace with," said Joe Turner.  "An AI agent with access to financial systems or customer data is a security risk in the same way a privileged human user is. The tools to manage that are still maturing, but the investment is starting now, ahead of the regulatory deadlines that will make it non-negotiable."

Cybersecurity hardware continued to decline, falling 5.7% in Q1 as organisations prioritised software-defined security architectures. CONTEXT expects this divergence to persist, with hardware becoming an increasingly specialised segment concentrated in sovereign infrastructure, industrial resilience and compliance-specific environments.
 

About CONTEXT
CONTEXT is a B Corp certified provider of market intelligence and analytics for the global technology industry. The company works with leading manufacturers, distributors and investors to support strategic decision-making through advanced forecasting, analytics and data management. CONTEXT systems track more than £200 billion in annual technology sales transactions, supported by a global team of over 400 professionals operating in more than 35 countries.

Press contact
Funda Cizgenakad T: +44 7876 616 246 E: Funda@contextworld.com