Research Updates

London, 05 May 2020 – Volume sales of PCs through Western Europe’s largest distributors increased by +17.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 as a surge in demand for remote-working equipment during the last month of the quarter pushed PC growth, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

PC sales increased by +7.6% in January, +13.2% in February and +31.8% in March, when stricter measures to contain the spread of coronavirus across Europe led to a dramatic rise in remote working.

Over the full quarter, the increase was greater for business-targeted products: sales of these were up by +22.8% year-on-year compared to +9.4% for consumer-targeted PCs. The most sought-after devices were notebooks – up +18.4%, as a +23.6% rise in the commercial category was supported by a +12.3% increase for consumer systems. Desktop sales were up by +15.3% overall with a +22.7% growth in sales of business-targeted devices more than compensating for a fall of -2.7% in consumer sales.

The unexpected surge in demand for devices suitable for home working seen in March has led to a significant reduction in notebook stock across most Western European countries. With incoming supply also disrupted by manufacturing and logistics issues, distributors have been using existing – and often even ageing – stock to fulfill orders and have reported a growing order backlog. Consequently, while the March spike in demand is likely to soften, sell-through during April is set to stay healthy as the channel works on reducing this backlog.

The impact of the current crisis on PC demand throughout the rest of the year will depend on the duration of lockdown measures and the effect these have on European economies. Longer term, the crisis is likely to accelerate digitalisation efforts across a number of sectors now that, for many organisations, the ability to provide a secure infrastructure for remote working is no longer a “nice-to-have” but an economic necessity.

                            Y/Y PC volume growth: Western European distribution

                                  PC sales: Western European distribution

London, 26 May 2020 – In April, volume sales of notebooks through Western Europe’s largest distributors maintained their momentum and increased by +46% year-on-year while sales of desktops dropped by -32%, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

Growth in notebook sales reached +45% in March, when strict measures to contain the spread of coronavirus across Europe led to a rise in demand for devices to facilitate remote-working and home-schooling. This unexpectedly high demand, coupled with disruptions to supply, left distributors with a growing order backlog. In April, as supply improved, the channel was able to work on fulfilling orders – leading to another month of high sales and the +46% growth noted above. The increase was primarily driven by commercial laptop sales: these were up +70% whereas those of consumer notebooks increased by +20%.

The picture was very different for desktop computers. During April, sell-through in this category dropped by -32% year-on-year. While demand suffered from customers shifting their focus to mobile solutions in response to the current crisis, last year’s good performance also had an impact on the year-on-year comparison: it was at exactly this time in 2019 that desktop sales began to increase as a result of commercial Windows 10 migration demand. An increasingly high baseline for year-on-year figures, combined with the expectation that desktop demand will remain weak, means this trend is likely to continue throughout Q2.

While the recent spike in demand for notebooks will end, the devices will remain central to future sales as organisations across many different sectors rethink the ways they handle home- and flexible working, and digitalisation increases.

                        Y/Y PC volume growth: Western European distribution

                         PC volume sales: Western European distribution

London, 29 May 2020 – Sales of large-format displays (LFDs) were already being affected by the Covid-19 pandemic before a dramatic drop in early Q2 2020, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company. This decline reflected the effects of lockdown measures as these devices are heavily used in public settings. On the positive side, digital signage has the potential to support the safety-conscious ‘new normal’ in a range of spaces. If indications that the pandemic is now being brought under control are accurate, and if lockdowns can be released safely, it is reasonable to hope that the category will recover with renewed confidence in its ability to make a difference to business and wider society.

After a strong 2019, where sales growth was in double figures, there was significant slowdown in LFD sales over Q1 2020 with a total decline -1% year-on-year. This was due not only to the spread of Covid-19 in Europe but also to factory closures in Asia during the early days of the pandemic. That said, there was one sub-category which continued to do well in Q1: sales of interactive models, which are used for office collaboration and classroom teaching, were up by +14%. However, this too ended in early Q2 as widespread lockdowns across Western Europe (WE) led to a dramatic decline across the entire sector.

      Y/Y large format displays (LFD) volume growth: Western European distribution

Total sales of LFDs designed for digital signage, public information or collaboration declined by 46% year-on-year in the first five weeks of Q2 2020, affecting all vendors and almost every country in WE. It will take time for these losses to be recovered. Large-scale events have been postponed and demand for LFDs for indoor applications has fallen – we need desktop monitors, not boardroom screens, for school students and office workers now based at home. Transport, hospitality, and bricks-and-mortar retail – all important verticals for LFDs – have suffered. Fewer commuting office workers means a smaller audience on transport networks. Moreover, the future of the communal touchscreen is in question: except in a few specialist applications, convenience will not survive anxiety about hygiene and shared surfaces. It will be interesting to follow how vendors adapt and rise to the challenge of creating alternatives to touchscreens.

Despite the difficult environment, there are opportunities for the LFD industry as lockdowns gradually ease, societies begin to reopen, and the world finds out what the new normal will be. Digital signage can help public spaces adapt to the need for social distancing, thanks to its ability to convey clear messages at the same time as offering the options of personalisation and adaptability. Even where strict lockdowns remain, it can reach consumers in outdoor spaces used for exercise and support online sales while shops are still closed. As LFDs are set to help us reintroduce some of our day-to-day activities whilst enabling us to keep a safe distance, the sector has a good chance of making a full recovery – especially if current opportunities to innovate and contribute are fully realised.

London, 29 May 2020 – A spike in consumer printer demand during Covid-19 lockdowns has helped overall sales through European distributors grow by 2.2% year-on-year in the first 18 weeks of 2020, according to CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

      Graph 1: Printer volumes and Y/Y change by category – European distribution

The latest data indicates that, although not as essential to home working and studying as products like computers and headsets, printers became more popular in March and April as households began to see the value of having a device at a time of mass school and office closures.

Consumer unit sales across Europe spiked by 72% year-on-year in week 14 (ending April 5) and by 52% in week 12 (ending March 22).

However, although the etailer consumer and retail channels accelerated their purchasing in Q1 2020 due to concerns over supply instability, revenues fell by -10.6% year-on-year. This was due to falling ASPs and a greater focus on consumer products (cheaper entry-level and mid-range models) than in the same period last year.

In fact, consumer printers dominated the first 18 weeks of 2020, accounting for 64% of sales and growing by +11.7%, while unit sales in the business segment fell sharply at -14.4%.

Brother (+33%), Canon (+18%), HP (+17%) and Epson (+11%) saw significant year-on-year sales increases in the consumer space as a result, although most brands benefitted, while in the commercial space just four vendors saw double-digit growth: Brother (+17%), Canon (+16%), Xerox (+14%) and Epson (+10%).

             Graph 2: Y/Y change in printer sales by segment – European distribution

Inkjet MFPs and SFPs were the winners: European distributors sold more of these models in almost every single week than at the same time in 2019. A shortage of consumer printers also forced many buyers to purchase entry-spec business inkjet MFPs, driving up revenues.

Overall inkjet sales have risen 30% year-on-year due in part to ink-tank models that are appealing to consumers looking for more durable home essentials.

           Graph 3: Y/Y change in inkjet sales by function – European distribution

Laser printers have had a less successful year thus far, with neither the business nor the consumer segment matching 2019 performance. Overall sales during the first 18 weeks of 2020 were down by -7.2% year-on-year (and revenue by -17.5%), mainly due to falling business demand. However, sales of laser MFPs aimed at consumers grew by +29%, driven mainly by cheaper models of up to €150.

      Graph 4: Y/Y change in laser printer sales by function – European distribution

The story in each of the major Western European countries was slightly different, and it reflects differences in the timing and nature of measures implemented by Governments to control the spread of the virus. Only Spain recorded unit sales and revenue growth, with most countries showing declining revenues even as volume sales increased.

Table 1: Imaging units sold and revenue: Y/Y change For W1–W18 2020 – European distribution

Although there is no sign of recession, a prolonged lockdown across Europe could leave vendors and distributors with excess inventory, especially business laser printers.

London, 24 June 2020 – In May 2020, the consumer print market dominated (inkjet MFPs continued to shine, with sales driven by low-cost consumer models), and business spend continued to suffer, according to the latest data from CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company. The shift towards consumer sales has been dramatic and sudden. Now, with lockdowns easing, distributors should be prepared for the market to move in the opposite direction.

Graph 1: Printer volume Y/Y change by category – WE distribution (May 2020)

Overall volumes held steady year-on-year, although results varied by country. There were marked declines in revenue, mirroring falling business sales. Revenues fell by -40.1% in France and by -27.2% in the UK. Revenues in Spain and Italy fell by -6.9% and -5.7% respectively. The revenue split in May this year was 58.9% business to 41.1% consumer, compared to 73.1% business and 26.9% consumer in May last year (there are 2 more working days last year compared to this year). In normal times, revenue figures favour the business sector because of the fewer, bigger investments that businesses make. This hit to the business share will gradually reverse once business demand is back, and once excess stock has moved through to final customers.

Graph 2: Printer revenue share by targeted-customer segment – WE distribution

Sales to consumer channels held steady, and sales to business channels fell. Unit sales to corporate resellers dropped by -39.4% year-on-year, and sales to etailers focused on serving businesses were down -28%. Sales to consumer channels were up by +2.2% for retail chains and +11.2% for consumer etailers, as lockdown working encouraged consumers online to refresh home equipment. In this consumer-driven market, inkjet MFPs did well; the coronavirus lockdowns challenged other categories, particularly sales of business laser devices. The changes are likely to have generated an excess of inventory in the channel, and we may see promotions as more normal activity restarts.

Although the situation varies by country, the trends over the last couple of months are clear: consumer inkjet MFPs are performing well, business spending is down, and the market has shifted towards consumer printers. As offices begin to reopen, distributors should be anticipating a rebound in business sales in the second half of the year.

London, 19 June 2020 – The market for servers in the European IT distribution channel is on the up, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

                      Server Y/Y Revenue Growth (rolling 4 weeks): Europe

Revenues from the server market, which includes server systems and upgrades, have returned to pre-COVID-crisis level in the latest weeks. However, the picture is more nuanced when looking at country level.

                                 Server Y/Y Revenue Growth (rolling 4 weeks)

Sales are catching up well in Germany, Italy and Spain and have entered positive growth territory. Indeed, Spain and Italy are positively growing in Week20, which includes Week17 to Week20 revenues as a rolling 4 weeks, with respectively +2.4% and +9% year-on-year revenue growth while Germany is showing +10.6% increase on the same period. Meanwhile other countries are lagging behind. There are no signs that distributors in France and the UK have seen transaction pick up of the last few weeks with the former declining by -37.9% in Week20 and the latter showing a revenue reduction of -34%. This is not completely unexpected as, traditionally, a smaller proportion of infrastructure business in these markets goes through the distribution channel.

                                Server Y/Y Revenue Growth (rolling 4 weeks)

The CONTEXT corporate reseller panel shows strong server sales over the last month in these 2 countries offsetting, to some extent, the negative impression of recovery given by looking at the distribution channel alone. Week18 revenues, which includes Week15 to Week18, grew by +14.6% in France and by +33.6% in the UK compared to the same period last year. In those 2 countries, infrastructure sales tend to go more heavily through tier-one corporate resellers, and those resellers also quite often deal with large and more complex infrastructure projects. As lockdown eases, larger organisations are back to business as usual whereas smaller companies have been slower to resume operations and this could go some way to explaining the difference in sales pick-up between distribution and tier-one corporate channels. Corporate resellers in Germany and Southern Europe tend to buy from distributors (around 80% of corporate reseller business in Spain goes though the distribution channel) which is why COVID recovery is much more visible in the distribution-channel data for these countries.

Therefore, if we use a multichannel perspective, we can say with confidence that the server market in Europe is in a post-COVID phase. Distributors in France and the UK still have some catching up to do but this should happen in the next few weeks as lockdown measures are eased further and the market continues to see the positive impact of projects put on hold being resumed. However, since industries such as retail, hospitality and tourism will be working at only half capacity for the next few months, we should not expect a boom in infrastructure sales any time soon.

London, 23 October 2020 – Although the overall client SSD market has seen low demand during the pandemic, lockdowns and home working have had a positive effect on consumer-channel sales, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

 

                                     Client SSDs: Year-on-year Revenue Growth



The impact of the pandemic on the client SSD market is clear when we look at revenues: growth in the first quarter has been followed by two quarters of year-on-year revenue declines. However, some of the strong demand in Q1 2020 was a result of the news of supply disruption as China and Korea felt the first effects of COVID in January. Sales were up as resellers aimed to put themselves in a position to overcome any problems with PC component supply chains.

                          Client SSDs: Revenue Share by Type of Customer



The CONTEXT distribution panel shows the dynamics of the pandemic-impacted client SSD market. Revenues from consumer-oriented customers – retail chains and consumer etailers – are growing by +7.2% year-on-year whereas those from the business channel – small and medium resellers and business-focused etailers – have dropped by more than -20% compared to the same period last year. This is not unexpected given that business closures and economic slowdowns are affecting the ability of small and medium businesses to invest in computer equipment while a workforce based at home – and negotiating technology access with other members of their family – is purchasing more home-PC components.

                               1TB NVMe Revenue Share by Type of Customer


 

                                         Client SSD Price per GB (Euro)



 

Another interesting SSD data set is the price per GB, which is playing its part in the decline of revenues over the third quarter. The cost of 1GB of storage has fallen -12% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020. Capacity demand is, therefore, not as low as the revenue drop suggests: distributors report that it has actually been flat year-on-year. The Q1 spike in price per GB is a result of the high demand seen during that quarter, and the sharp drop in Q3 could be a consequence of resellers reducing prices to get rid of excess stock following low demand in Q2 and Q3.

We expect the consumer channel will continue to drive the client SSD market over the coming quarters as some countries in Europe reimpose lockdowns. However, the decrease in the price per GB will certainly make it easier for financially uncertain businesses to make greater investments than in the last two quarters and this will also have a positive effect on SSD sales.

London, 13 February 2020 –The Industrial/Professional printer market (that is, for all printers above $5,000), has seen a +8% rise in polymer material utilisation over the last twelve months. Within polymers, photopolymers have seen the most significant near-term growth with volume used and revenues generated from use both seeing growth of +21% over the trailing twelve months (TTM) through to Q3 2019. For thermoplastics, although the overall increase in utilisation was up only +6% for the period, the powder-based side of this market saw good growth thanks mostly to a rising installed base of HP multi-jet fusion machines across the globe.

Charts 1 and 2: Global material utilisation by Industrial/Professional printers Trailing-Twelve-Months (TTM)

For Photopolymers, while there is an underlying increase in material utilisation as the market shifts from one principally focused on prototyping to one where mass production is also a key usage, near-term increases in material sales were more the result of a growing base of installed printers for traditional 3D printing uses. One such market which has traditionally embraced 3D printing for its unique ability of mass customization (that is, tweaks to each individual product manufactured) is dentistry. Photopolymer utilisation for this historically strong dental sub-sectors was particularly strong in the TTM to the end of Q3 2019, seeing a +29% increase in throughput. Increased photopolymer utilisation was also supported just in general by the accelerating installation of vat photopolymerisation printers in the TTM to Q3 2019 which were up +28% from a year before.  Strong sales of all price-classes* of Industrial/Professional stereolithography printers from the likes of 3D Systems, EnvisionTEC, UnionTech and Carbon were seen, helping to grow the installed base. Overall shipments of stereolithography printers – laser based, LCD, DLS/CLIP and especially those leveraging DLP engines – outpaced the retirement rate of legacy printers in the field, leading to a larger operational base of Industrial/Professional printers which resulted in accelerated material usage.

Chart 3: Global Industrial/Professional printers installed by primary material/process

The thermoplastics market is even larger than the Industrial/Professional photopolymer market. This part of the 3D printing polymers space is dominated by material extrusion machines but recent growth in material utilisation is linked to powder bed fusion (PBF) technologies. The period Q4 2018 to Q3 2019 saw a huge increase of +41% in the number of polymer PBF printers installed, driven by growing sales of HP’s Multi Jet Fusion technology. HP offers both Industrial* price-class printers, for mass production, and Design* price-class printers, mainly for more typical 3D printing applications like prototyping and short-run production.

* 3D printer segment by price class: INDUSTRIAL ≥ $100K, DESIGN = $20K–$100K, PROFESSIONAL = $2.5K–$20K, PERSONAL ≤ $2.5K (excludes do-it-yourself DIY kit printers)

April 2020 - A weak Q4 2019, now compounded by potential supply-and-demand constraints associated with the coronavirus pandemic, leave the global 3D printer market set to see fewer printers ship in 2020 than in 2019.

As of the end of Q1 2020, many 3D printer companies from the US, Europe, China and everywhere across the globe have rightly refocused their effort away from printer sales to producing much-needed supplies to help combat coronavirus, according to the latest data by CONTEXT, the market intelligence company.

Focusing efforts on producing much-needed medical supplies has meant a move away from the production and sale of printers towards service businesses and service-bureau infrastructure. Coming on the back of weak shipments in Q4 2019, this refocus – and the supply-and-demand constraints expected in the weeks to come – looks to make 2020 a difficult year for 3D printer shipments.

While COVID-19 had not yet had an impact, global 3D printer shipments were already unseasonably weak in Q4 2019. For many manufacturers – particularly those focused on Industrial* or Design* price-class printers – this slowdown was associated with a weak automotive market, a generally weak manufacturing sector and sluggish Asian and European economies.

CONTEXT notes that printer shipments over the quarter saw year-on-year changes of -11% (Personal* price-class printers), +26% (Professional* printers), -22% (Design) and -23% (Industrial); the only increase being in the hot Professional category.

Over the year as a whole, there was only +1% growth in shipments of Industrial printers compared to 2018; in the Design segment, -6% fewer printers shipped; and finished-good Personal printer shipments were down by -11% as demand continued to shift to kits, sales of which are hard to quantify. Once again, the only year-on-year growth was in the Professional segment where shipments rose by +16% as many longstanding 3D printer companies returned to the space and others, previously focused on producing Personal printers, moved up into it.

Chart 1: Yearly global finished-good 3D printer unit shipments and growth by price class (note two scales)

In the finished-good Personal 3D printer market, 2019 was strong for established vendors such as XYZPrinting, Prusa Research, Monoprice, Anycubic and Flashforge but it was the more ill-defined kits market which drew the most industry attention. The leader in the kits space - and far-and-away the market share leader in the global 3D printer market when considering both kits and finished-goods - was China’s Creality 3D. While it was once assumed that consumer demand for DIY kits would fade away in the face of the better out-of-the-box experience offered by completed machines, self-assembly – largely catering to hobbyists – has come back into vogue in recent years. This is thanks to not just very low price points but also protectionist measures which favour the importation of parts that can be assembled locally over finished goods even though, in this case, the assembly is on an individual do-it-yourself basis rather than factory-level production. The number of DIY kits shipped in 2019 was almost twice as high as that of finished printers but, if aggregated into the annual total, sales to this nebulous market would have increased global revenues by only +9%.

In the Design and Industrial segments – which collectively accounted for over 78% of all 3D printer sales revenue – aggregate shipments were down -3% for 2019. Although metal 3D printer shipments were up +4% on the previous year, with steady growth seen in emerging technologies like material extrusion and directed energy deposition, there was a -10% decline in those of mainstream powder bed fusion printers. Market leaders GE Additive and EOS were joined in the top 5 by Desktop Metal and Markforged (both of which offer material extrusion based solutions) and newcomer HBD which performed strongly in China, its domestic market. Overall shipments of Industrial and Design polymer printers fell by -5% compared to 2018 but certain vendors, including HP and UnionTech, saw excellent growth. Stratasys remained the market leader in terms of unit volumes even though annual shipments dropped by -12% in 2019.

Chart 2: 2019 Global 3D printer unit market share leaders: Industrial and Design price classes

Forecasts for 2020, based on information available as of 23 March, show printer manufacturers are now assessing, on a daily basis, the impacts of a disrupted supply chain and uneven human productivity on both their own ability to produce hardware and the end-markets to which they cater. In recent years, vendors have typically begun with a bullish outlook and slowly adjusted their shipment outlook over the year. Currently, however, vendors are offering only informal/high-level forecasts: most are beginning 2020 with a negative outlook and anticipating they will recover as business begins again once the global pandemic subsides. While each printer class caters to different users, many of the key end-markets (such as the dental, aerospace, automotive, consumer product, orthopedics and education markets) are negatively affected by global work closures and slow-downs. On the supply side, key components for printers, as for many other electronic goods, come from China, the region impacted first by the pandemic. As a result of the uncertainty, hardware vendors are now thinking in terms of weeks and quarters rather years, and current aggregate forecasts show the Industrial and Design segments are set to see shipment declines of -4% from 2019 to 2020 even taking into consideration a recovery in the 2nd half of the year.

In the Industrial market – which accounted for 68% of global 3D printer hardware revenues 2019 – shipments in the second half of 2019 were slow, even though this is usually the strongest part of the year, and the outlook for 2020 was, therefore, already challenging. Taking into account both these negative headwinds and the supply-and-demand challenges associated with global reactions to the coronavirus, this segment hopes to see a slide of only -2% in printer shipments in 2020 after its 5-year CAGR of +14% and anticipates a rolling recovery by region, starting with the East.

As the pandemic comes under control and economies return to normal, there is great potential for the 3D printer market since the ability of the technology to assist with the immediate needs of the medical community have showcased its quick-turn capabilities worldwide. Responses to the pandemic are also demonstrating that leveraging 3D printing for local production, instead of relying on complex multinational supply chains, has the potential to help many companies mitigate future risk.

                  Chart 3: Global Industrial 3D printer shipments and forecast