Research Updates

London, 26 February 2021 – The strong growth in PC sales seen in 2020 continued unabated at the start of 2021 as demand for mobile PCs remained high, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

Despite the trading period in January 2021 being two days short of January last year, PC volume sales through Western Europe’s largest distributors increased by +20% year-on-year during the month, following a rise of +21% in Q4 2020. Growth was once more driven by notebooks, sales of which were up by +46% as distributors continued to fulfil large tenders from education and public administration. In addition, the extension of lockdown measures in many countries meant that demand for devices which enable working from home, e-learning, and connecting to friends and family stayed high.

The picture for desktops was, once again, entirely different: following a −21% drop in Q4 2020, volume sales declined by −38% year-on-year in January.

Commercial channels, which include sales to the education segment, saw the greatest increase in laptop volumes. In January, notebook sales to these channels were up by +59% year-on-year, while those of desktops dropped by −47%.  In consumer channels, the performance of notebooks was weaker, growing by +28%, but that of desktops was better, growing by +2% when compared to the same month in the previous year.

Countries with high institutional education demand saw the strongest notebook growth. These included the UK (+120%), Italy (+106%) and Spain (+58%). In France, notebook sales grew by +24% but there was a −2% drop in Germany, a country which was heavily impacted by the product supply issues that remained a challenge across the region and continued to cause fluctuations in performance. Some of the growth registered in early 2021 was driven by fulfilment of orders placed much earlier in 2020. Supply issues are expected to continue to affect the market for quite some time – at least for the first half of the year.

Y/Y PC volume growth: Western European distribution

Y/Y notebook volume growth: Western European distribution

London, 18 December 2020 – Sales of gaming PCs through European distributors remained high in early Q4 2020, including the weeks leading up to Black Friday, as governments across the region announced new lockdown measures to control the spread of Covid-19 and consumers prepared to spend more time at home, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

Volume sales of gaming PCs grew to 946,000 units during the first two months of Q4, an increase of +26% on the same period last year. Growth was primarily driven by mobile systems, which represented the larger part of the market; sales of these were up by +29% whereas those of prebuilt gaming desktops increased by +5%.

There have been notable changes in the processor landscape over the past year, with AMD gaining significant ground on Intel. A year ago, Intel held 70% of gaming PC sales and AMD 30%; in early Q4 2020, Intel’s share of sales was 53% while AMD accounted for the remaining 47%.

Germany remained the largest European market for gaming PCs in distribution. In early Q4 2020, 20% of PC gaming sales through distributors were to this country and this was up by +35% compared to last year. The second-largest market, Russia, accounted for 13% of sales despite a weaker year-on-year performance. Spain and Poland (third and fourth in terms of size) saw volume sales increase by +53% and +33%, respectively.

Demand for gaming PCs has reached new heights since the outbreak of the pandemic and is expected to remain strong in the run up to Christmas. While there will be competition from new gaming consoles during the 2020 holiday season, PC demand is likely to stay high, not least due to recent announcements of new products such as AMD’s Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs and NVIDIA’s GeForce RTX 30 series GPUs.

Gaming PC volume sales: European distribution

Gaming PC volume sales: European distribution countries

London, 26 Nov 2020 – Sales of desktop monitors through distributors in Western Europe (WE) grew in early Q4 2020, continuing the trend that began at the start of the pandemic. Over this period, sales have been driven not only by continuous high demand from consumers but also by recovery in the business segment, according to data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

In the first month of the quarter, combined sales of business- and consumer-targeted monitors were up by +21% year-on-year. While most of the growth in Q3 as a whole was due to consumer models, sales were up in both segments in October. As expected, consumer e-tail and retail drove the change, but sales to small and medium business (SMB) resellers and business e-tailers also improved. Sales to corporate resellers continued to fall, declining by -8% year-on-year.

Desktop monitors: Volume share by channel, WE distribution

In the past, November (which includes the weeks leading up to Black Friday) has been a very strong month for consumer monitors. In 2018 and 2019, however, sales began picking up in October, and distributors have seen the same thing happen this year: sales to consumer channels (e-tail and retail) in Germany, the UK, Italy and France were more than 20% higher than in September. In the UK and France, October sales grew by over 50% year-on-year whereas in Spain they fell by -6%. It is interesting to note that sales to SMB and business e-tail resellers during this month also grew, indicating a recovery in the business space. In Germany and Italy, sales to these channels grew by +44% and +35% year-on-year, respectively.

Desktop monitors: Consumer channel volume share by

price band, WE distribution

This year has also seen a change in the prices of models sold. Last year, the number of monitors costing less than €200 that distributors sold to consumer channels grew: this year’s increase has been driven by expensive models. Over 26% of monitors sold in October 2020 had 27" screens, but the largest growth was in sales of those with 23.8", 34" or 49" screens. Sales of portable 15.6" screens also increased significantly.

Gaming monitor sales were already growing before the pandemic, and the new circumstances have only accelerated this well-established trend. Increasing competition between vendors offering more and more exciting, high-spec (165Hz and above) models has not only fuelled interest but also pushed prices down, further spurring demand. In October, almost 20% of monitors sold to consumer channels had a refresh rate of 75Hz (a sales increase of +230% year-on-year), 10% were 144Hz models, over 4% were 165Hz, and 2% had an even higher refresh rate of 240Hz. The average selling price of monitors with the most popular screen sizes and high refresh rates was 10% lower than in the same period last year.

With October and November seeing the greatest demand for monitors, Q4 volume sales are expected to remain strong. However, after quarters of growth, the gradual slowdown in the monitor market, and component shortages, will trigger more aggressive behaviour from vendors – and any increased price competition may affect desktop monitor revenues into next year.

London, 09 Oct 2020 – Sales of monitors through distributors in Western Europe (WE) continue to thrive and grew +15% year-on-year in early Q3 2020*, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

Since the beginning of Q2 2020, demand has been driven by consumer models. Sales of these grew by +38% year-on-year in early Q3 2020, generating revenues that were +46% higher than in the same period last year, as result of a surge in demand for more expensive, high spec, gaming monitors.

Sales of business monitors were still below 2019 levels, registering –1% growth. However, this figure hides improvements in August and the first weeks of September after a weak July. Most sales are to small and medium resellers and business etailers. Those to corporate resellers remain weak with volumes smaller than in the previous year although here, too, the situation is improving week by week. Many companies plan to restart projects as the year ends, and investment from government in some WE countries will also help the business segment to recover.

Desktop monitors: weekly sales growth by target customer, WE distribution

In both the consumer and business segments, growth is particularly visible in the higher price ranges. The business market currently seems to be driven by sales to consumer channels, showing that, while businesses are still struggling, vendors and distributors are trying to offset lost opportunities by selling all types of products to consumers through retail and etail. In fact, sales of business models to retail almost doubled in early Q3 2020. Most of these were of the most popular screen sizes, such as 23.8 inches and 27 inches, but sales of 21.5-inch monitors were also up. Growth in sales of business monitors finally picked up in the low-end (<€100) what was also driven by increased demand from consumer channels. Despite increased interest in high-spec and all-in-one docking monitors, the need for home-office equipment is pushing vendors and distributors to supply more entry-level and mainstream models at the most affordable prices. Unfortunately, there are shortages of display panels for some common screen sizes and this has further increased competition in this segment.

In the consumer space, models priced by distributors at above €250 saw the highest growth. In this price bracket, it’s not about 144 Hz any more but about 165 Hz or even higher, like 240 Hz refresh rates. As the number of new models increases and competition heats up, prices are going down: this is helping to maintain momentum and boost demand.

Desktop monitors: year-on-year unit sales growth by

price band, WE distribution

Vendors and distributors continue to be concerned about the extent to which demand may have peaked in the first quarters of 2020 and the effect this may have on Q4, which is traditionally the strongest quarter of the year. However, new restrictions and lockdowns across WE in response to a second wave of the pandemic may push those who haven’t yet invested in their home-office set-ups into the market. Remote working may become more of a permanent state than the temporary solution everyone might have once thought it.
* Early Q3 excludes last week of September (W40)

London, 07 Sept 2020 – Western Europe’s largest distributors saw printer sales boom at the end of the first quarter of 2020 and then fall in the second quarter, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company. The sudden rise – to meet the demand created by widespread lockdowns – prompted an impressive increase in sales of inkjet SFPs (single-function printers). Distributors also sold more consumer printers than in the same period last year.

Although inkjet SFPs saw the biggest year-on-year improvement, sales of inkjet MFPs (multifunction printers) also increased during March, as did those of laser MFPs – albeit on a more modest scale. Laser SFPs followed a different course, with sales falling and remaining below those seen in 2019.

          Graph 1: Printer volume sales: Y/Y change by category – WE distribution

The sudden rise and fall in sales of inkjet SFPs contrasts with the consistently flat performance of these devices in the first half of last year: sales were up by +45.6% in March but distributors sold more than ten thousand fewer units in May 2020 than in May 2019. This suggests that increased demand caused a supply shortage. Sales of inkjet MFPs, consistently the most popular printers, also spiked in March. It is possible that increased demand for inkjet SFPs was prompted by distributors and vendors reaching the end of their supply of inkjet MFPs near the start of July.

Pricing may also have been a factor as average selling price (ASP) of inkjet SFPs fell between January and April, then rose in May and June before falling again in July pushing sales back up to a level corresponding to a +9.4% year-on-year increase. The March sales increase for these products came in the middle of this ASP decline, whilst the subsequent reduction in sales coincided with the restoration of higher prices.

                 Graph 2: Inkjet SFPs volume sales & ASP – WE distribution

Inkjet SFPs in the 100 to 150 euro price band performed well in both quarters, with sales increasing by +50.4% year-on-year in Q1 and +26% in Q2. This positive trend continued into July when growth increased again to +44.3%.

Business and consumer products contributed equally to the March inkjet SFP sales spike. However, in Western Europe, overall sales to business-targeted models declined by -11.1% in the first quarter and by -20.1% in the second. Meanwhile, the consumer-targeted printers increased by +14.6% in the first quarter but only +4.9% in the second reflecting the softening of the market as spring turned into summer. Most inkjet printers sold are MFPs, and the pandemic has affected sales of business and consumer inkjet MFPs in quite different ways. The growth in sales of consumer models reached a height of +36.3% year-on-year, with ink-tank devices doing particularly well. Meanwhile, sales of the equivalent business printers, far from being boosted, fell steadily, with the year-on-year decline increasing from -5.7% in February to -32.9% in May, -19.2% in June, and -43.6% in July.

Given the pandemic, it is not surprising that consumer models have performed well and that the overall market has been challenging. Developments in the next few months will continue to shape sector-specific growth and determine both how long the consumer boom lasts and whether the business sector makes a good recovery.

London, 05 Aug 2020 – Western Europe’s distributors sold an unprecedented number of ink-tank printers in the second quarter of 2020, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

The increase reflects the continued growth of a technology that is relatively new in Europe. Marketed as a smart investment that delivers long-term savings, ink-tank printers appeal to users wishing to equip their homes with durable hardware. Control measures associated with the pandemic have, therefore, created conditions that favour adoption of these devices. Price increases resulting from a shortage of traditional consumer inkjet printers, and shortages of ink cartridges, have also encouraged uptake of ink-tank models.

The steadily increasing market share and the strong upward month-by-month sales trend suggest that ink-tank printers may well end the year with a higher share than last year’s 4.9%. In the second quarter of 2020, the number of traditional ink-cartridge printers sold fell year-on-year while ink-tank sales saw dramatic increases.

Ink-tank printers accounted for 6.6% of sales of inkjet units sold in Western Europe in the first half of 2020 (up +2.3 pts compared to the same period last year), and for 15.7% of inkjet revenue, with sales of ink-tank printers through the distribution channel increasing by +59.8%. This overall figure disguises the details of the trend: unit sales climbed throughout the spring, with year-on-year growth rates climbing from -11.1% in January to +89.6% in June.

Graph 1: Printer volume sales: Y/Y change by category – WE distribution



The year-on-year performance of ink-tank printers in the major Western European markets exploded in the second quarter, coinciding with lockdowns. In the first quarter, the number of units sold in Germany was down by -30.3% on the previous year; in the second quarter they were up by +110.7%. In the UK, they moved from +19.4% in the first quarter to +142.5% in the second; and in Italy from +69.5% to +149.3%. There was also a change in unit sales in France: from -14.9% to +70.3%.

 

Graph 2: Ink-tank printer volume sales: Y/Y change by country – major WE economies
 

The geographical spread of ink-tank printer sales in Western Europe largely follows the size of the market in each country with four of the Top 5 heading the list. Germany took 25.2% of ink-tank sales, representing a fall from its even bigger share of 36.2% in the first six months of 2019. Italy followed with 19.3%; the UK took 13.7%; and Spain 11.2%. Whilst the UK’s share held steady, Italy and Spain both increased their shares compared with the same period last year. France took only 2.7% of sales compared with 3.7% in the first half of 2019 – a smaller share than the other major countries in both years.

The mix of brands is steadily diversifying as more vendors explore Europe’s potential. Epson, an early champion of the technology, took 79.2% of the market in the first half of 2020; 24.1% of its inkjet units were ink-tank models, and they provided 41% of its revenues for the category. Other major vendors are making inroads: HP’s and Canon’s shares of the ink-tank market increased in H1 2020 compared with the first half of 2019 (8.8% and 5.9% share respectively).

Although the pandemic has encouraged uptake, there are other positive indicators – a diversifying share of the market across countries and across vendors – suggesting that ink-tank models are poised to steadily replace traditional consumer inkjet printers in Western Europe.

London, 23 October 2020 – Although the overall client SSD market has seen low demand during the pandemic, lockdowns and home working have had a positive effect on consumer-channel sales, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

 

                                     Client SSDs: Year-on-year Revenue Growth



The impact of the pandemic on the client SSD market is clear when we look at revenues: growth in the first quarter has been followed by two quarters of year-on-year revenue declines. However, some of the strong demand in Q1 2020 was a result of the news of supply disruption as China and Korea felt the first effects of COVID in January. Sales were up as resellers aimed to put themselves in a position to overcome any problems with PC component supply chains.

                          Client SSDs: Revenue Share by Type of Customer



The CONTEXT distribution panel shows the dynamics of the pandemic-impacted client SSD market. Revenues from consumer-oriented customers – retail chains and consumer etailers – are growing by +7.2% year-on-year whereas those from the business channel – small and medium resellers and business-focused etailers – have dropped by more than -20% compared to the same period last year. This is not unexpected given that business closures and economic slowdowns are affecting the ability of small and medium businesses to invest in computer equipment while a workforce based at home – and negotiating technology access with other members of their family – is purchasing more home-PC components.

                               1TB NVMe Revenue Share by Type of Customer


 

                                         Client SSD Price per GB (Euro)



 

Another interesting SSD data set is the price per GB, which is playing its part in the decline of revenues over the third quarter. The cost of 1GB of storage has fallen -12% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2020. Capacity demand is, therefore, not as low as the revenue drop suggests: distributors report that it has actually been flat year-on-year. The Q1 spike in price per GB is a result of the high demand seen during that quarter, and the sharp drop in Q3 could be a consequence of resellers reducing prices to get rid of excess stock following low demand in Q2 and Q3.

We expect the consumer channel will continue to drive the client SSD market over the coming quarters as some countries in Europe reimpose lockdowns. However, the decrease in the price per GB will certainly make it easier for financially uncertain businesses to make greater investments than in the last two quarters and this will also have a positive effect on SSD sales.

London, 30 Sept 2020 – Sales of enterprise security products in Europe continue to be impacted by the COVID crisis, with businesses updating endpoints and networks to make sure employees can work securely from home, according to the latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company.

Enterprise security products 4-week-rolling revenue – Y/Y change, Europe

After remarkable growth in March, April and May, European sales of enterprise security products seemed to have slowed in June. However, there has been significant growth since the start of July, when it became obvious to businesses that the workforce would stay at home for a longer period of time, and 4-week-rolling revenues for week 30 showed particularly strong growth.

Enterprise security products 4-week-rolling revenue

–  2020 Y/Y change, France and UK

France and the UK are the main drivers of the European enterprise security market, and there was significant growth in both countries during July and at the beginning of August. (Although year-on-year revenue increases in France were already high in June, this was partly due to a rather weak performance in June 2019.)

Enterprise security products 4-week-rolling revenue

–  2020 Y/Y change, by segment

Endpoint security revenues grew more than those from network security products and saw a peak in week 30. While trends in both main segments of the enterprise security are similar, the protection of endpoints is a priority for businesses while so many people are working from home.

Endpoint security – week 23 to week 2020 Y/Y growth by solution type

While sales of traditional endpoint protection platforms – such as Internet security suites that include antivirus, anti-malware and other features – continue to grow significantly, those of endpoint detection and response solutions – which have more advanced capabilities and are able to detect and respond to less traditional cybersecurity threats – are also increasing.

With employees working away from the office during the COVID crisis, security challenges have increased massively. Companies can act by protecting endpoints, and increasing sales of security products show they are doing just that. However, new challenges arise from the behaviour of a home-based workforce: for example, mixing personal and professional tasks on a corporate computer increases risks from scam emails. Ownership and responsibility for security has begun to move from the usual corporate bubble to the individual. With companies talking about permanently increasing the number of employees working from home, the associated challenges will create new opportunities for security vendors.

LONDON, 14 Oct 2020 – The global 3D printing market saw a+24% second quarter sequential rebound in domestic unit shipments of Industrial-class printers in China, and a global surge of +68% in Personal desktop printer shipments, according to latest data published by CONTEXT, the IT market intelligence company. These trends give hope to an otherwise depressed 3D printer market that saw hardware revenues fall by -27% from a year ago.

Shipments of high-end and mid-range 3D printers (that is, those in the $100K+ Industrial and $20K–$100K Design price classes) stalled significantly as businesses in the West put capital expenditures on hold and large parts of key industries were still paused. However, demand for Professional price-class printers ($2.5K–$20K) remained strong as people continued to work from home. Hobby-level Personal printers (<$2.5K) were also in demand and shipments of these are no longer hampered by supply-chain limitations now that production in China has resumed. Aggregate revenues from new printer shipments rose marginally from Q1 to Q2 (by +5%) but were down -27% from Q2 2019. Industrial printer sales accounted for 62% of global finished-good revenues in the period.

                   Chart 1: Global 3D Printer Shipment Revenues by Price Class



Industrial price class (≥ $100K)

As China came back on-line in Q2 2020, so too did demand for Industrial printers. Indeed, many Chinese vendors reported seeing shipments not just rise compared to Q1 but also witnessed even higher shipment rates than a year ago. While overall shipments improved slightly from Q1 to Q2 thanks mostly to a bounce back in China, they remained very low in Western markets resulting in total shipments in the class down -38% from a year ago. This portion of the market was already facing negative headwinds at the end of 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic, but vendors are noting accelerated interest following the important role that 3D printing played in the heart of pandemic shutdowns.

Almost all non-Chinese top 20 Industrial printer companies saw sizable year-on-year declines in the number of units shipped – with the notable exception of metal machine producer SLM Solutions. China’s UnionTech, Farsoon and HBD saw not only a sequential rise in shipments but also saw shipment totals actually greater than last year. Germany’s SLM Solutions has come back nicely from their reset year last year and were shipping against orders placed prior to the onset of the pandemic. While some vendors reported a slight sequential rebound in shipments, most saw a double-digit year-on-year drop in shipments from a year ago.

Design price class ($20K–$100K)

With 78% of this class of printers being shipped to Western countries, and with US and European economies effectively on hold throughout at least April and May, this segment faced significant challenges. Key end-markets, such as the dental industry, were largely closed down, severely impacting demand. As Western markets slowly began to re-open in June, demand rebounded slowly but unit-volume shipments were still down -34% on the previous year. The leaders in this segment, 3D Systems and Stratasys, accelerated layoffs in response to the pandemic and used the period to reset strategy.

 

Chart 2: Industrial and Design 3D Printer Shipments and

Y/Y Growth by Region

Professional price class ($2.5K–$20K)

The strong Q1 demand for this type of printer, which arose from new homeworking scenarios, continued into Q2. Buyers are looking for ever-more professional products with even more robust feature sets. This has pushed average street prices up and allowed printer revenues to rise nicely even while shipments are only marginally better than a year ago. Weighted average prices for these printers have risen +15% since the beginning of 2019 making this the only price class to see year-on-year revenue growth (of +7%) in Q2 2020.

Personal price class (≤ $2.5K - excludes DIY kit printers)

Many products in this class either come directly from China or are highly dependent on supply chains associated with the country. While demand from quarantined hobbyists increased in Q1 2020, supplies were limited and, thus, new-product shipments were significantly hindered. This changed in Q2 when Chinese production came back online leading to a quarter-on-quarter shipment surge of +68%. While, in recent quarters, the finished-good market has been losing share to the growing kits market (dominated by Chinese players like Creality and which also saw great sequential shipment growth), Q2 was the first period since the beginning of 2018 in which non-kit printer shipments grew year-on-year, up +2% from Q2 2019.

Looking forward

While the market for new printers in a few key areas was challenging, the demands made of the installed base of printers in all price ranges increased as they were used to create pandemic-related items ranging from PPE to nasopharyngeal swabs. While this could not fully compensate for lost demand from closed markets (such as consumer products, education and the dental and automotive industries), it clearly demonstrated the flexibility of the technology showing how it can be leveraged to help overcome supply-chain disruptions and could, in future, be so used across many industries. While recovery in the West is proving to be slower than some had anticipated, vendors have been reporting renewed interest in the technology throughout Q3 – from new sectors as well as known markets. They are hopeful that this interest will turn into Q4 orders: the final quarter typically accounts for 29%+ of each year’s shipments but it is now anticipated that it will account for 36%+ of those in 2020. The challenge to fulfilling these expectations is that key in-person events such as Germany’s FORMNEXT, where many large deals have historically been finalised, remain virtual as the West continues to deal with the pandemic.

V-shaped recovery expected for shipments of Personal 3D printer shipments; longer recovery anticipated for Industrial and Design printers; shipments of Professional 3D printers continue to climb.

LONDON, 09 July 2020 – As anticipated, regional quarantines have taken their toll on much of the 3D printer industry, according to latest market insights by technology market research firm CONTEXT.

Shipments of printer hardware in the high-revenue Design* and Industrial* price classes were significantly down from last year during the first quarter, mostly because of reduced demand from key vertical end-markets where operations have been paused. Conversely, shipments of Professional* printers market fared much better, thanks both to strong end-market demand and little disruption from its own supply base. The top vendors of Professional printers are less reliant on OEM production in China or from components sourced from the region so were not hampered by supply-chain interruptions. This, along with continuing high demand, led to shipments in this price class increasing by +12% compared to a year ago.

While the non-kit Personal* market has struggled of late, demand for these products also increased in the quarter as hobbyists look for a way to fill their time while sequestered at home or produce PPE to support their community’s battle against the virus. However, much of this demand remained unmet in Q1 2020 because many entry-level printers include components from, or are entirely produced in, China.

With Chinese factories largely closed, production was simply not possible and unit shipments were down by -38% on Q1 2019 according to CONTEXT. The rising kits market was even harder hit by these supply-chain issues, and some saw shipments fall by as much as -75% on the previous year. Although industry in China has bounced back, and preliminary reports project a production surge, this only impacts the lowest-end products and many vendors of higher-end Design and Industrial printers are actually expecting the second quarter of the year to have been more difficult than the first because their end-markets have been severely impacted by fallout from the pandemic.

Industrial price class

Accounting for 68% of global 3D printer hardware revenues in 2019, the Industrial price class faced challenges in sectors such as automotive and general manufacturing in H2 2019 – so it was already fighting headwinds at the start of 2020. While rolling business shutdowns began in the East and did not affect the West until the end of Q1 2020, shipments of higher-priced products are often concentrated toward the end of the quarter and lockdowns therefore affected global figures for the period as a whole. Customers in many key end-markets – including automotive, aerospace, dental, healthcare, consumer products, movie props and education – were effectively closed down and/or immediately and severely cut back their near-term capital expenditure. While initial expectations were that Chinese companies selling domestically would be the most severely affected in the first quarter, the impact was felt by almost every major printer company. Companies including industry leaders 3D Systems, Stratasys, EOS, UnionTech, HP and GE saw double-digit declines on the previous year’s global shipments. There were also logistical issues: service and sales personnel could not travel either internationally or domestically to help with final installations. New printer shipments in this class dropped -30% from Q1 2019. However, business complications associated with the global reaction to the pandemic were not uniform and there were a few bright spots. Some vendors selling $1M+ printers – which typically have long lead times – reported shipment increases based on opportunities booked last year.

Design price class

Key end-markets for this type of printer, such as jewellery and dental businesses, were all but shut down across the globe, severely impacting demand for new machines. This class of printer is used for prototyping in many industries but, in the face of uncertainty around work stoppages, many companies quickly halted research and development activities and the purchase of expensive equipment to use for such tasks was put on hold. This resulted in -37% fewer Design printers shipping in Q1 2020 than in the same period of the previous year.

Professional price class

As employment shifted to homeworking, the demand for reasonably priced professional printers surged in much the same way as that for webcams, notebook PCs and other “work-from-home” hardware. Unlike Industrial and Design models, most Professional 3D printers are typically desktop or benchtop sized and do not require specific ventilation or industrial-standard work areas, making them ideal for use in the home office. This sector was already doing well: over the past few years, the top companies in the class, including Ultimaker and Formlabs, have not only seen demand rise but have also invested in improving hardware and this has allowed them to compete on a revenue basis with some of the largest 3D printer companies in the world. Long-time heavyweights such as Stratasys and 3D Systems have recently re-entered this market. As a result, 2019 printer unit shipments were +17% up on the previous year and this momentum continued into the first part of 2020. The sector saw additional demand from consumers and hobbyists unable to purchase Personal printers, and growth was possible because key vendors in this sector are less reliant on Chinese components meaning supply-chain limitations had little impact.

Personal price class

While finished-good printers in this class have recently been losing ground to even cheaper build-it-yourself kits (such as those from Creality3D and from Prusa Research), demand boomed in Q1 2020. Some of this came from engineers and designers working from home, but more came from hobbyists, particularly in the US and Europe. These were people eager to find new hobbies to try while quarantined, or/and who wanted to produce whatever PPE they could: for example, by printing simple face shields which, while not meeting the rightly stringent needs of medical institutions, could support others in the local community.

Chart 1: Quarterly global finished-good 3D-Printer unit shipments

by Price Class (note individual scales)

Looking forward

Production of the lowest-priced Personal printers was already rebounding quickly in May and June, and there are reports of new hires being made in factories from China to the Czech Republic to help fulfil unmet demand. This production explosion points to a V-shaped recovery for shipments of this type of printer. Shipments of Professional 3D printers have hardly skipped a beat during the pandemic, and growth in the class is expected to continue. The impact of COVID-19 on key vertical markets for Industrial and Design printers was still severe in the second quarter and, with fears of a resurgence of the virus continuing to affect the decisions such businesses are making about capital expenditure, the trough in demand will, potentially, be more prolonged. Shipments of new products from the likes of Desktop Metal, Xerox and Stratasys, and the general trend toward strong purchasing in the fourth quarter, leave Industrial 3D printer vendors hopeful for a rebound in the second half of the year. It also looks as if interest in binder jetting for metals – in machines such as those currently offered by ExOne and Digital Metal and, in the near future, to come from GE Additive, Desktop Metal and HP – will aid the turnaround.

While increases may take a while to materialise, forward-thinking companies are expecting a U-shaped recovery in printer shipments and are already betting on a future demand surge. Investments in new companies and new technologies – such as the private equity money raised by rising metal company VELO3D – give strong indications that the outlook for long-term post-pandemic growth is bullish. The 3D printing market has also benefitted from increased public awareness during the crisis, as companies demonstrated the flexibility of the technology by quickly pivoting production, and this supports expectations that a demand bump will emerge in time, no matter when the near-term recovery takes place.

Chart 2: Historical and forecasted revenues from global

printer shipments by class ($M)

* 3D printer price classes: Industrial ≥ $100K, Design = $20K–$100K, Professional = $2.5K–$20K, Personal ≤ $2.5K (excludes DIY kit printers)