Are you seeing a shift in the PC market? While notebooks have long dominated, desktops are experiencing a surprising surge in growth. Based on recent distribution data, this isn't just a blip; it's a significant trend with clear drivers. Let's dive into what's fueling this desktop resurgence and what it means for the broader PC landscape.

For years, the narrative around personal computing focused on mobility. Laptops became the de facto choice for many, leading to a period where desktop sales seemed to be in perpetual decline. However, recent data paints a different picture. In the first 2 months of Q2, desktop revenue growth has significantly outpaced notebooks, with a remarkable 22% year-on-year increase compared to 7% for notebooks. This isn't just about revenue; unit growth for desktops mirrors this trend, while notebooks only saw a modest 3% unit growth. So, what's behind this unexpected boom?

A key factor is the looming end of Windows 10 support. Businesses and individual users alike are facing an imperative to upgrade their systems. But beyond this, a deeper issue is at play: the age of the installed desktop base is remarkably high. Many desktops are long overdue for a refresh, and we're finally seeing that "bulk refresh" activity kick in. Unlike notebooks, where refreshes tend to be more staggered, desktops often see a more concentrated upgrade cycle, especially around significant OS transitions. This is creating a powerful wave of demand.

The impact of this desktop resurgence is evident in the overall PC market mix. Desktops are now contributing a new high to the segment's revenue, nearing 14% in early Q2, and even higher at nearly 17% when excluding tablets. This is the highest contribution desktops have seen in the past two years. While it's important to remember that this growth comes after many years of decline, and volumes are still lower than pre-pandemic levels, the current momentum is undeniable.

Geographically, certain countries are leading the charge in this desktop revival. Germany has seen particularly strong growth in commercial desktop sales, even facing some availability issues due to higher-than-expected demand. The UK is also a strong contributor, with growth across both commercial and consumer sales. Poland is another key market, driven by growth in SMB and retailer channels.

Notebooks: Steady Growth, but with Nuances

While desktops are making headlines, notebooks are also seeing growth, albeit at a more moderate pace. The same countries driving desktop growth – Germany, the UK, and Poland – are also contributing to notebook performance. Interestingly, these are the regions where lower education sales haven't impacted year-on-year comparisons as severely. In contrast, countries like France, Spain, and Italy, which saw strong education projects last year, are now experiencing the ripple effect of those comparisons.

The influence of education sales on the notebook market is significant. When looking at year-on-year unit growth for notebooks, which stands at 3% overall, a stark contrast emerges: education notebooks are down significantly (a whopping 57% in revenue), while traditional notebooks are seeing healthy double-digit growth (11% in revenue). This highlights the importance of distinguishing between these segments when analyzing the notebook market.

The Rise of AI-Capable PCs

Beyond traditional performance metrics, the emergence of AI-capable PCs, specifically notebooks featuring an NPU, is a growing trend. Currently, around 40-41% of notebooks are AI-capable. While this represents a high share, the adoption rate isn't primarily driven by active customer demand for AI features just yet. Instead, it's largely fueled by the rollout of new products and processor generations. Notably, Copilot+ systems are gaining traction, making up nearly 13% of AI-capable devices in May, a significant jump from 5% at the start of 2025. This growth is predominantly driven by Intel Lunar Lake systems in the commercial segment.

The PC market is dynamic, and the current desktop resurgence, coupled with nuanced growth in notebooks and the increasing presence of AI-capable devices, points to an exciting future. Understanding these trends is crucial for businesses and consumers alike.

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