London, 5 th February 2026 - A structural shift in global manufacturing towards AI infrastructure is tightening supply across core IT components, setting the stage for higher consumer PC prices from the second quarter of 2026 onwards.

New insights by global market intelligence firm CONTEXT shows that rising component costs are already working their way through the European channel, with further pressure expected as the year progresses.

“Manufacturers are prioritising production for AI data centre infrastructure, redirecting capacity away from consumer grade memory and storage towards high bandwidth memory and advanced storage required for large scale AI workloads”, said James Bates, senior retail analyst at CONTEXT. “With new fabrication plants typically requiring more than two years to come online, supply is struggling to keep pace with demand. Recent earnings from major storage vendors underline the scale of the shift, with AI driven revenues accelerating sharply and inventory remaining constrained well into 2026.”

CONTEXT component pricing insights highlight how quickly the situation has escalated across Europe Using a price index of 100 based on average costs during July to September 2025, prices by December had moved sharply higher across European markets. RAM pricing reached index levels between 155 and 220, meaning memory costs in some countries more than doubled within a single quarter. Consumer SSD pricing also rose materially, reaching index levels between 125 and 135, equivalent to increases of 25 to 35 percent over summer 2025 levels.

The impact on finished PC pricing is already visible, although uneven. Desktop pricing has moved first, with the average European distributor sell price rising from €560 at the start of 2025 to €609 in the opening weeks of 2026. Notebook pricing has softened temporarily, falling from €768 to €728, reflecting continued sell through of inventory purchased before the component price surge.

That buffer is unlikely to last. As older stock is cleared and manufacturers price new builds against higher component costs, CONTEXT expects notebook pricing to follow desktops upwards. Supply constraints for certain configurations, combined with emerging CPU availability challenges, are expected to tighten product availability and increase pricing volatility from Q2 onwards.

“The first quarter of 2026 represents a narrow calm before the pressure really builds,” added James Bates. “Once legacy inventory is exhausted, higher component costs will be unavoidable. Retailers that secure stock early and clearly explain the value of upgrading now will be better positioned as pricing resets across the market.”